(Finance) – The December increase in inflation in the eurozone”don’t worry” and represents “just an accident towards the objective of 2%, due to unfavorable base effects on the energy component”. This was stated by the economists of the Studies and Research Directorate of Intesa Sanpaolo after the data published this morning by Eurostat.
In December, theheadline inflation of the euro area rose to 2.9% (+0.2% m/m) from 2.4% in November, less than consensus expectations (3%), due to unfavorable base effects linked mainly to inflation German energy company. However, the decline in the indices continues, net of the most volatile components: theECB core index (excluding energy and fresh food) fell for the ninth time, to 3.9% (+0.3% m/m) from 4.2% previously, a minimum since April 2022; L’index net of food and energy fell for the fifth consecutive month to 3.4% (+0.4% m/m) from 3.6% in November.
“Looking ahead, inflation it is expected to start falling again, albeit with less intensity, from January 2024 – we read in research signed by Aniello Dell’Anno – During the new year, inflation should temporarily fall below 2% in the summer months, before rising to 2.4% in December 2024 and remaining approximately in line with 2% in 2025. The index excluding fresh food and energy is expected to slow from 3.9% at the end of 2023 to 2.2% in December 2024, before also reaching 2% in 2025″.