Eurovision: we have dissected the chances of winning for each country. And for France, it’s not pretty pretty

Eurovision we have dissected the chances of winning for each

EUROVISION 2023. Just over a week away from the big Eurovision contest, bookmakers have already accumulated bets. And the chances of seeing La Zarra, France’s candidate, winning in 2023 are slim…

Eurovision 2023 enters its home stretch next week. From Tuesday 9 May, the semi-finals of the great European singing competition begin at liverpool, the host city. The date for the grand final of Eurovision has been set for Saturday, May 13, 2023, from 9 p.m. And ten days before the verdict, seeing France win would be a miracle if we are to believe the bookmakers who have already accumulated bets on the songs most likely to win.

According to data compiled by the specialized site, the Quebec singer La Zarra, chosen to represent France, would place third in the forecasts, tied with the Ukrainian duo Tvorchi and the Spanish representative Blanca Paloma. Encouraging, until we observe more closely the chances of winning, estimated at 5%.

Sweden and Finland favorites, La Zarra far behind

No need to be a Eurovision specialist to understand: out of around twenty bookmakers – 18 to be exact -, La Zarra does not obtain any odds below 10 (as a reminder, in terms of odds, the closer you are to 1 the more favorable the predictions). His song “Evidemment” tumbles (or peaks) even at 21 against 1 at the British Betfair. Too far from the favorite, the Swedish star Loreen, already winner of Eurovision in 2012 and who tops out at 1.62 against one at BET365 and several other online betting sites and obtains his worst score at only 1.92. This is followed by the Finnish rapper Käärijä, who obtains odds between 2.88 and 4.20 according to the statement that we carried out Thursday afternoon.

The two Eurovision favorites would therefore have, thanks to all the ratings, respectively 42% and 23% chances of winning, with a good margin on their pursuers and therefore on the French-speaking singer. Here is the detail of the chances of winning at Eurovision established from the odds of 18 bookmakers. This table will be updated regularly until the final, with the latest data available:

What happens with La Zarra before Eurovision?

Is the French candidate for Eurovision already paying for having shunned the “Eurovision In Concert” tour in recent weeks, in London and Amsterdam? The singer had canceled at the last moment her performances in this general rehearsal of the competition, which took place in mid-April, citing a “personal problem”. In Le Parisien, she has since admitted to having experienced difficulties since her selection, in particular an extinction of voice “for six months”.

“I’m not going to lie, I have ups and downs in relation to the competition. Sometimes I tell myself that I’m going to win and other times that it’s too much. But I’m here to do the best I can,” said she said daily. If she assures that she will hold her rank on May 13, La Zarra will probably not find comfort in the forecasts, since “Obviously”, the song she will perform if all goes well that evening, is far from making the difference. unanimity. And this even though it is one of the most listened to among the participating countries as well as the non-participants, who will have a say in the vote this year.

La Zarra, a Canadian-Moroccan artist, is no stranger. She had been named francophone revelation of the year to the NRJs Music Awards in 2021. She is particularly known for her title “Tu t’en iras”.

Eurovision 2023 news

The next edition of Eurovision has been set for mid-May 2023. The semi-finals of the international singing competition have been scheduled for May 9 and 11, before the grand final, held on Saturday May 13, 2023. Eurovision took up residence in Liverpool, UK this year.

If the organization of Eurovision should have been entrusted to Ukraine, winner last year, the war which is still raging in the country has forced the competition to change its plans, the security conditions not being sufficiently guarantees.

In 2023, France 2 decided not to renew the competition “Eurovision France: it’s you who decide” on an exceptional basis. It is this competition that has designated for some time the song presented at Eurovision. The channel mentioned a “coup de coeur” meeting with the Quebec artist La Zarra and chose to send her directly to the international singing competition.

La Zarra who will therefore represent France during Eurovision. She will perform the title “Obviously”, to listen to below.

Since its creation in 1956, France has won the Eurovision Song Contest five times: in 1958, 1960, 1962, 1969 and 1977. Our country is therefore just behind Ireland, which holds the record with seven victories. In 1958, it was the singer André Claveau who won France’s first victory with the title “Dors, mon amour”. Two years later, in 1960, the artist Jacqueline Boyer won unanimous support with the song “Tom Pillibi”.

In 1962, Isabelle Aubret won Eurovision with the song “Un premier amour”. Then, in 1969, Frida Boccara won the Eurovision Song Contest with the title “Un jour, un enfant”. Finally, in 1977, the singer Marie Myriam was the last to win by performing “The Bird and the Child”, a title that has become cult over time for the public.

Last May, Ukraine was crowned winner of Eurovision 2022. The country represented by the rap group Kalush Orchestra benefited from a major mobilization of the public, a few weeks after the attempted invasion by Vladimir’s troops Cheese fries.

This victory was expected by the bookmakers. In total, the song “Stefania” ranked at the top of the chart with 631 points.

  1. Ukraine (631 points)
  2. United Kingdom (466 points)
  3. Spain (459 points)
  4. Sweden (438 points)
  5. Serbia (312 points)
  6. Italy (268 points)
  7. Moldova (253 points)
  8. Greece (215 points)
  9. Portugal (207 points)
  10. Norway (182 points)
  11. Netherlands (171 points)
  12. Poland (151 points)
  13. Estonia (141 points)
  14. Lithuania (128 points)
  15. Australia (125 points)
  16. Azerbaijan (106 points)
  17. Switzerland (78 points)
  18. Romania (65 points)
  19. Belgium (64 points)
  20. Armenia (61 points)
  21. Finland (38 points)
  22. Czech Republic (38 points)
  23. Iceland (20 points)
  24. France (17 points)
  25. Germany (6 points)