Important elections for the whole of Europe. Watershed.
This is what experts say about the elections in which the Germans today vote for representatives to Parliament, the Bundestag.
Germany is the largest economy in Europe and, due to its size, influential in the EU, but in recent years Germany leadership has been lost. The government’s attention has gone to argue and problems at home and abroad.
Now, power is changing, as according to surveys, the right-wing conservative CDU/CSU party is the biggest. CDU leader Friedrich Merz said on Fridaythat Germany will play a more active role in Europe in the future. According to Merz, Germany and Europe must strongly defend their interests, including against the United States.
However, the performance of the new government is determined by the result of the election, which is what parties are involved.
Another big issue in the elections is the popularity of the far -right AfD. According to surveys, the party is doubled its vote for the last election. The support of about 20 % would be the largest in the right -wing party in the post -war history.
You can follow the exciting election evening at EPN’s special broadcast on TV1 and Arena starting at 7 pm. A university lecturer is about commenting Kimmo Elo From the University of Eastern Finland, an older researcher Tuomas Iso-Markku Foreign Policy Institute and EU Director Lotta Nymann-Lindgren Confederation of Finnish Industries.
asked them in advance how Germany was working after the elections and how the election result will also affect Finland.
1. German leadership role
During the German elections, the United States has made a full translation in relation to its allies and Russia. Will Germany take a clearer lead role in Europe in recent years, especially in relation to the United States?
Tuomas Iso-Markku: At least alone, Germany can hardly adopt a very visible lead in Europe. Even more German can be imagined to be part of a broader European management team that could consist of particularly large EU and NATO countries. However, this would require the next German government to be the Social Democrats Olaf Scholzin More functional than the government.
Kimmo Elo: Ultimately, the EU should take responsibility for its own activities and its own agency. Germany can and wants to support here. If the German government has to do something, it is as soon as to launch the German, France and Poland cooperation axis. The idea that the integration achievements of decades will be reset to the debate on which country would now lead to others.
2. Support for Ukraine
Germany has been Ukraine’s second largest military assistant since the United States. How will Germany support Ukraine in the future?
Lotta Nymann-Lindgren: Germany’s strong support for Ukraine will remain, regardless of the election result, and is likely to be strengthened if the next federal citizen is CDU’s Merz. He has welcomed, among other things, the supply of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Within the EU, the hot question is to increase defense supplies production. So far, Germany has been critical of the idea of ​​EU joint debt to finance defense investments. However, it is possible that there will be some movement after the elections.
Tuomas Iso-Markku: The probable future of Germany’s likely future government parties has a strong consensus on the need for support for Ukraine – even though there has been a torque about weapon systems and the extent of support.
In the light of current information, it is difficult to say how the future Germany’s future government would take, for example, security guarantees offered to Ukraine or any European troops that may be invested in Ukraine. German politicians have not yet taken a stand on such themes.
Of the four largest parties in Germany, three want to support Ukraine. The second AfD of the polls is in favor of normalizing relationships with Russia. See how others challenged AFD leader in Thursday’s TV conversation:
3. The plight of the economy
The German economy has been reduced for two years in a row and is in major structural problems. How could Germany return to the European economy locomotive?
Kimmo Elo: Germany has a huge repair debt related to the basic structures. Its the biggest reason is Angela Merkel the season when mainly necessary changes were made.
There is no silver bullet to turn the German economy. In the green transition, Germany has taken reasonably big leaps, but they are not enough to turn the overall picture positive. Some kind of renewal of the debt brake would seem necessary.
Lotta Nymann-Lindgren: The most important task of the future government is to turn the economy into growth and to improve competitiveness. The availability of affordable energy and the disconnection of industrial fossil addiction are central. There is also a debate on reducing taxation, which would improve consumption demand.
Merz’s goal is to raise the employment rate, for example, by renewing support systems. Also at the top of the list is the demolition and digitalisation of bureaucracy. What is finally done depends largely on the government base.
Read more about this story about how the German economic downturn also affects Finland.
4. Immigration
Immigration is one of the most important election themes in Germany. What kind of immigration policy will Germany do in the future and how does it affect other EU countries, including Finland?
Tuomas Iso-Markku: There have already been significant blackmailing in the German asylum and refugee policy, and the tone of the immigration debate has been significantly tightened. It is expected that the government led by the CDU/CSU will run an even more steeper line. This primarily has an impact on the German border neighbors, but also through the EU on joint policies.
Lotta Nymann-Lindgren: Merz has suggested that the boundaries have been successful from others, so it should also succeed in Germany. Presumably, Merz also looks at the Nordic countries and looks for examples and opportunities for cooperation. The aim is probably to strengthen EU cooperation in, for example, return policy. At the same time, however, Germany is also dependent on foreign labor.
Kimmo Elo: Germany has no resources for large -scale tightening of border control. In addition, Schengen region legislation sets certain boundaries. The fastest actions are likely to be related to conversion and returns.
This story tells how more and more Germans want to get rid of immigrants, even though the economy needs them.
5. Rise of extreme right
The next Federal Chancellor Merz says that it does not form a government with the support of the far -right AfD. Can the future government be able to make reforms in Germany that curb extreme party growth?
Tuomas Iso-Markku: It is difficult to give the AfD popularity of one clear reason. It is difficult to come up with any patent solution to curb the rise of AFD. Of course, the step forward would be that the government would be more cohesive than the Scholz government internally.
Lotta Nymann-Lindgren: If you succeed in economic growth, it will create more maneuver, for example, for financing education and well -being and the implementation of the green transition. However, it is difficult to predict whether such achievements are sufficient for voters who find the change difficult and cherish a nostalgic longing for the past.
Kimmo Elo: The worst formula for curbing extremes is to start doing the things that the extremes require. In the light of the studies, a more fruitful strategy is a consistent and clearly communicated job for making decisions that are good for the community as a whole. Particularly in uncertain times, people need positive future images that make efforts feel important and appropriate.