Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas: the eye of Phuc-Vinh Nguyen

On Friday 11 March, the European Union decided to step up its military aid to Ukraine. By purely and simply multiplying by two the promised contribution just days after the Russian invasion. Bringing the total amount of European aid to one billion euros. A substantial sum? Not so much if you put it into perspective. In perspective of the sum sent each day by Europe to Russia to settle its energy bill. ” We are talking about 750 million euros per day. Our addiction to gasto oil and at coal funds the war in ukraine »reminds us Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, before discussing a decision “radical which will be difficult to assume, but which we could technically take tomorrow. » The one that the United States, through their President Joe Biden, took a few days ago already: to decree an embargo on imports of Russian oil and gas.

A decision easier to make across the Atlantic than in our old Europe. Because remember that more than 40% of our gas and nearly 30% of our oil come from Russia. “Deciding on an embargo will force us to implement binding measures. The situation pushes us to completely rethink our relationship to energy. We will all be involved”believes Phuc-Vinh Nguyen.

It’s kind of the idea ofDraft REPowerEU plan unveiled on March 8 by the European Commission. “Proposals which have nothing regulatory for the moment”but whose ambition is to lead us to do without imports of fossil fuels Russians by 2030. And even two-thirds by next year. “If all the proposed measures are implemented, it is quite possible”assures us the researcher of the Jacques Delors Institute.

Gas, always gas

So what are these proposals presented by the European Commission? First of all, there is that concerning gas storage – which makes it possible to cover around 25 to 30% of our winter consumption. Europe is today calling on the Member States to fill their gas storage as soon as possible. So that they are 90% full on 1^er October. This is already what the law orders in France. But this is not the case in all European countries. A legislative proposal will be presented next April. Until then, “States have been instructed to act as if the regulations were already in force. It is rare for the European Commission to preempt the approval of the co-legislators in this way. It shows the urgency of the situation we find ourselves in today.”, emphasizes Phuc-Vinh Nguyen. While recalling that even storage thus filled would not constitute an insurance to pass thewinternext warm. “A particularly cold or long winter could still put us in difficulty. » Note that it is a question here as well of the storage of fossil gas methane, that storage of natural gasliquefied, the LNG. “For countries that have terminals LNG carriers . » And this, whatever the cost. Because “Tomorrow, Russia may decide to turn off the taps. We have to protect ourselves”.

Beyond filling storage, the European Commission also calls for diversifying sources of supply. By maximizing imports by gas pipeline from Norway or Algeria, for example. For the supply of LNG, the idea remains to turn to countries such as Qatar, Egypt or the United States. “But today, few of our partners can still significantly increase their production,” Phuc-Vinh Nguyen points out.

Another way to diversify sources could be to turn to green gas. Biomethane. The one that we produce thanks to the fermentation of waste organic fromAgricultureor our garbage cans. “France has already bet a lot on thebiomethane. Especially because this gas can be injected into the networks”, specifies the researcher from the Jacques Delors Institute. The Government has moreover just reaffirmed its support for the sector by raising the level of support for network connection costs from 40 to 60%. The idea should therefore be welcomed with enthusiasm. Not quite, though. “The objectives set by the European Commission are extremely ambitious. » They have now reached the level emanating from the proposals of the probiogas lobbies. That is to say. “To achieve this, it would be necessary to massively deploy new production capacities. » Enough to make the researcher “skeptical” about the feasibility of the operation.

Almost as much as it is regarding the hydrogen issue . Let us recall that in order to producehydrogenwithout consuming fossil resources, there is a prerequisite: electricity. Preferably renewable electricity. Hence the idea that has germinated recently to produce hydrogen in countries that have a strong potential in solar energy, for example. Like Morocco. “It would still be necessary to build infrastructures that would allow this hydrogen to be transported to Europe. » And that’s not to mention the very limited efficiency of the electricity-hydrogen-electricity cycle.

Sobriety, everyone’s business

The other track mentioned by the European Commission is that of sobriety. “Lowering heating by just 1°C across Europe is equivalent to saving 10 billion cubic meters of gas. » Of the 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas that we consumed in 2021, it is not nothing. “This lever is important. It is up to the public authorities to stimulate the movement . But everyone will have to take ownership of the measures. And participate in the effort according to his situation and his means. »

But already, the track does not seem to be the one that France wishes to favor. Aid for thermal insulation, for example, has just been revised downwards. “However, there is an urgent need to accelerate the renovation housing energy. It could be done before next winter”assures us Phuc-Vinh Nguyen.

And the researcher launches another ” old woman “ idea: that of reduce speed maximum freeway traffic. To save oil this time. “The measure can be put in place overnight. Once the crisis has passed, it can just as easily be lifted. » All this to reduce consumption by 25% according to Negawattif we passed the speed maximum authorized from 130 km/h to 110 km/h. With a fuel bill, all trips combined, which would drop by 7%. And only 8 minutes from “lost” on a journey of 100 kilometers.

Act in solidarity

“The discourse which consists today of taking responsibility away from us, the French, because our dependence is less than that of Germany, for example, is erroneous. Almost criminal. We all have the opportunity to take concrete action. It is time to move from words to actions. Political power must set a course. Acceptable, but ambitious. If we are not able to reduce our dependence, how can we expect the Germans to do so. We must show solidarity. »

This solidarity called for by the researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute could, for example, take the following form. “If we succeed in reducing our gas consumption, part of the Norwegian gas that we import could go directly to Germany. » And it could even extend beyond European borders. “Algeria consumes almost exclusively gas to produce electricity. If we helped the country to develop solar power, there again, at least part of the gas not consumed locally could be redirected to Europe. »

What to avoid that the german coal power plants resume running at full throttle for too long. Because it is the decision that has just been taken across the Rhine. The International Energy Agency had called for extending the production of nuclear center intended to be terminated this year. But the country wanted it otherwise. He has the ability. Because it has reserves on its soil that it can extract to no longer depend on Russia for coal. “The European Commission prefers not to take sides. The question is too divisive. It simply evokes “the role of substitution” that nuclear power can play”says Phuc-Vinh Nguyen.

The problem is that restarting coal-fired power plants in Germany will inevitably lead to a rebound in emissionsof greenhouse gas. Bad news for the weather . But the researcher from the Jacques Delors Institute wants to remain optimistic. “95% of the measures proposed by the European Commission are as virtuous in terms of matterenergy independence than fight against global warming. The case of Germany is a case ofspecies . If emissions from the electricity generation sector will increase, it is hoped that others will decrease. Those of the residential sector, with the renovation of buildings, for example. »

Do without Russian fossil fuels by 2027

What seemed impossible in the name of the fight against global warming could therefore ultimately be accomplished in the name of our energy independence. “Because we have no choice. Our dependence on Russia is deadly. And we could decide on an embargo tomorrow. Technically, it would be doable. Scenarios were modelled. They involve pulling the sobriety lever, extending nuclear power plants, temporarily resorting to coal and relying more on LNG — for a time only in order to avoid climatic consequences. All of this would of course be extremely expensive. There would be a political will to display and difficult choices to make. Perhaps the introduction of rationing. » A term of war that no one wants to hear. “Yes, but war is at Europe’s doorstep today…”

In the meantime, the European Commission hopes to be able to propose to the Member States a reinforcement of the REPowerEu plan. Which would allow Europe to do without the fossil fuelsRussians from 2027. But we will have nothing for nothing. “We will all have to make an effort. The question of the social acceptability of wind turbines, for example, may take a back seat. Because to get there, we will need to put all of these measures in place. »