A disaster often ends in nothing. On April 14, 1912, the lookouts of the Titanic observed the sea of oil in the Atlantic during the inaugural crossing of the unsinkable ocean liner. Sailors only have their eyes to spot icebergs in the distance. The key to open the trunk containing the binoculars is not on board. When the obstacle rises in the distance, it is already too late. A big century later, the right does not want to make the same mistake. The Republicans, equipped with binoculars, are already observing their political iceberg: the European elections of May 2024. But do they have the strength to avoid it?
The right measures the danger of the ballot, four years after the rout of François-Xavier Bellamy (8.5%). With less than 5% of the vote, LR would leave the European Parliament. This hypothesis privately agitates even Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party (EPP), the pro-European right-wing party. “It is the election of all dangers”, notes the vice-president of LR Julien Aubert. “A survival ballot, confirms a senior leader. Without an MEP, we would no longer exist. Symbolically, it would be over.”
Winback Competition
The right is right to be afraid. It risks being caught between Renaissance’s pro-European offer and the far-right’s anti-EU discourse. Laurent Wauquiez knows how much this duo had deprived his party of oxygen in 2019. “There was a kind of fatality in this election. We were caught between a pro and anti-EU message”, confided in August the former president of LR . The ‘yes, but’ to Europe is a tough sell.
The same causes could produce the same effects in 2024. “Renaissance and the RN will again try to consolidate their bipolarization”, anticipates MEP Geoffroy Didier. A new competitor was also born on the far right: Marion Maréchal could wear the colors of Reconquest, the formation of Eric Zemmour. Sign of doubts, the MEP LR Agnès Evren wishes to become a senator in 2023 rather than trying to re-enlist in Strasbourg.
The Republicans haven’t started working on this election. The “States General of the Right”, an initiative by Eric Ciotti to restructure the base of the party, will make it possible to tackle the European question. The brainstorming operation is due to begin in June. François-Xavier Bellamy privately urges his camp to move up a gear. The right will have to carry a strong message… and have deep pockets. The philosopher has not forgotten his difficulties in obtaining a loan in his name of 4 million euros in 2019 to finance his campaign. The banks could be demanding: the lists winning less than 3% of the vote are deprived of the reimbursement of their electoral propaganda.
Strategic dilemma
This election will bring back the nagging strategic debates of LR. Former Minister Jean-François Copé, in favor of a government agreement with the presidential majority, intends to question a common list with Renaissance. “Some will scream, but I will ask the question,” says the mayor of Meaux in private. We do not attribute a great future to this hypothesis. The choice of the head of the list should, on the other hand, irrigate the debates, given its political dimension. The ballot, national, has the air of presidential of the poor. “The choice must be the translation of a political strategy, warns an LR executive. Do we decide to go after Macronist right-wing voters with a pro-European discourse or do we choose a more right-wing strategy for fear of a haemorrhage towards Zemmour?” Eternal subject on the right.
Two names are circulating in the LR corridors: Michel Barnier and François-Xavier Bellamy. The first has a central profile, but showed its limits during the LR primary for the presidential election. Too old, we laugh internally. The second is a respected figure in the European Parliament, but suffers from a conservative image. The philosopher wants to “play the return match” after his failure in 2019. “Our goal is to bring together the 20% who voted Fillon in 2017. I think I’m able to talk to them,” he said. – he confided to a relative, evoking the “war of succession in Macronie” and the “left” votes of the Renew group in the European Parliament.
Could he capture a popular electorate? The “social” wing of LR in doubt. Lot deputy Aurélien Pradié is already making the ballot a “moment of clarification”. “Bellamy’s campaign? I can’t wait to see what the French think about it, he slips. Let’s know who is right. We need moments of political truth: either you trigger them internally – what we have started to do and we see that things are moving – or it is the electoral meeting.
Bellamy wants to ‘play the rematch’
The right will play its collective future in two years. Several of its figures will play their individual destiny there. Eric Ciotti will live his first big electoral test at the head of LR. In 2019, this ballot had forced Laurent Wauquiez to give up his apron. The responsibility of François-Xavier Bellamy would be great if he led the list. A second failure would stain the CV of number 2 of LR. “The macronists are reviewing his votes to associate him with Zemmour”, feared an LR executive in December.
Brice Hortefeux is rather in favor of the Bellamy option. Not that the MEP carries the young elected official in his heart. This close friend of Laurent Wauquiez judges that this solution of continuity would preserve his presidential champion. We would not blame the putative candidate for 2027 for its possible failure. We should not weaken the boss of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, many of whom anticipate a return to the arena after this election. “The Europeans are not structuring for him”, confides a relative, anxious to disconnect the fate of the former president LR from this high-risk ballot. To have. The result of the right – good or bad – will rub off on its representatives. Taking command of a ship after hitting an iceberg is of limited value.