The participation rate for the 2024 European elections scheduled for June 9 should be significantly lower than that of the 2019 election, according to the latest Ipsos survey.
Forty-one days before the European elections, the fight is raging in the polls. At least, behind the one who has been in the lead since the start of the campaign, the president of the National Rally and head of the party list, Jordan Bardella. According to the latest electoral survey carried out among more than 10,000 French people for Cevipof, Le Monde, the Jean Jaurès Foundation and the Montaigne Institute, Marine Le Pen’s protégé is credited with 32% of voting intentions.
Behind him, the Renaissance list led by Valérie Hayer brings together 17% of voting intentions, closely followed by the Socialist Party/Public Square list led by Raphaël Glucksmann (14%). Behind the leading trio, several lists are neck and neck. 7% of voting intentions for the LFI list led by Manon Aubry and a perfect equality at 6.5% of voting intentions for the Ecologist list (Marie Toussaint) and that of the Republicans (François-Xavier Bellamy). The Reconquest list led by Marion Maréchal is lagging behind with 5.5% of voting intentions.
A participation rate of 45%?
The question of abstention should be one of the keys during this European election. And as a result, its participation rate. The latter should be well below expectations, and down sharply compared to the 2019 European elections (50.1%). To the question: “Can you give a score from 0 to 10 on your intention to vote in these European elections? 0 meaning that you are really quite certain of not going to vote and 10 that you are really completely absolutely certain to go and vote”, according to the last Ipsos survey conducted from April 19 to 24, 2024, the intention of the French to vote should be between 43% and 47%, for an average weight of 45% according to the data collected by the survey. A figure up slightly compared to November 2023 (43%).
32% of young people are “certain” to vote
Figures more marked among young people. Only 32% of 18-24 year olds are definitely planning to go to the polls to express their opinions. A figure which drops to 30% for the 25-34 year old category. Conversely, 62% of seniors (70 and over) say they are sure they want to vote for these European elections. In detail, 60% of retirees say they want to go to the polls, compared to 45% of executives and 37% of employees.
With regard to “partisan proximity”, in other words, political sensitivity, it is the supporters of the Reconquest party, represented by Marion Maréchal during this European election, who indicate that they are the most motivated by the idea of going to vote. 62% of them say they are “certain” to vote, compared to 56% for supporters of the majority. Supporters of La France Insoumise are the least numerous to say they want to vote, 45% of them are certain to go to the polls on June 9.