The 2024 European elections concern all countries of the European Union and the future political orientations of the European Parliament will depend on all the votes, particularly in Germany, Italy and Spain.
The results of the European elections must be taken into account at the level of the entire European Union and not just at national level. We must keep in mind that the European Parliament, which votes on the legislation of European political union, has 720 elected representatives and that France only has 81 of this total. The votes of our neighbors are therefore crucial in determining the political orientations of the future Parliament and the balance of power between the different groups.
The seats of the European Parliament are distributed among the 27 member countries of the EU in proportion to the population of each country: the more populated a country is, the more elected representatives it has in the chamber. The texts, however, provide for a minimum of six seats for the least densely populated EU countries, namely Malta, Luxembourg and Cyprus. Conversely, Germany is the most represented country with 96 elected officials. France comes next with 81 MEPs and the top five is completed by: Italy (76 MEPs), Spain (61 MEPs) and Poland (53 MEPs). All other countries have between 33 and 7 elected officials.
What are the general trends for the European results?
According to the surveys carried out in the different countries of theEuropean Union, including those of Euronews and Euractiv, broadcast before Friday June 7 and the end of the official campaign in France, the European Parliament could have a majority of right-wing elected officials at the end of the 2024 European elections. The group of the European People’s Party (EPP), currently in the majority, has a chance of retaining its place as the dominant group in the hemicycle. It would be followed by the group of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), located on the left of the political spectrum, which would also remain. On the other hand, the two far-right groups, the eurosceptic European Conservatives and Reformists (CRE) and the nationalist elected representatives of Identity and Democracy (ID), could win a few additional seats which would allow the extended bloc of ultra-conservatives to form the second European force on condition of a union or alliance.
If the far right seems able to win seats, it is at the expense of the liberal and democratic group Renew, in which Emmanuel Macron’s presidential majority sits. The group is reportedly losing ground according to poll results.
The results of the European elections in Germany
With the largest number of elected representatives in the European Parliament, Germany has a significant impact on the composition of the European Parliament. German elected officials are mainly distributed between the traditional right group, the EPP and the Greens with 30 and 25 elected officials respectively. The results of the 2024 European elections should not upset the balance too much according to the polls: the right represented by the Christian Democrats of the CDU and CSU should remain in the majority. The environmental group, on the other hand, risks losing around ten seats. The ultra-conservative European group Identity and Democracy should also be cut by around ten elected officials, who have even already left its ranks, after the exclusion of the German party AfD. If candidates from this political family are elected, they should be counted among the non-registered, but support very conservative policies.
The results of the European elections in Italy
Italy is one of the bastions of the far right in the European Parliament: around thirty Italian MEPs sit in ultra-conservative groups (23 in ID, 10 in CRE), compared to around fifteen elected officials among the Socialists and Democrats and a little more than a dozen elected to the right-wing group of the EPP. According to the results of the polls, Italy could remain on the extreme right but by changing sides after the European elections: the CRE elected officials, including those members of the party of the head of government Giorgia Meloni, would become more numerous than those of ID, unlike today.
The results of the European elections in Spain
The battle is between two groups in Spain: the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party which governs the country and sits in the S&D and the right-wing party which sits in the EPP. If the left-wing party is currently in the majority among Spanish elected officials, it is the right-wing elected officials who could be the most numerous once the results of the European elections are known according to the polls. Among Spanish elected officials, those serving in far-right groups are few in number but the latter could stay there and swell (very slightly) the ranks of the CRE.
The results of the European elections in Poland
In Poland, the far right, which is in the majority with nearly thirty elected representatives among the CREs, could lose momentum and be overtaken by another group depending on the results of the polls. According to forecasts, the Polish far right would lose around ten elected officials and would find itself at a level more or less equal to that of the more traditional right which sits in the EPP and which would gain a handful of seats. The majority of local elected officials would be distributed between these two groups in the European Parliament.
The results of the European elections in other countries
In several other European Union countries, right-wing and extreme forces are on the rise and could win the European elections at national level. However, the allies of the EPP are more often given the lead against elected officials who aim to sit on the CRE or ID. In the Netherlands and Austria, which have respectively 31 and 20 elected representatives in the European Parliament, the ID group is given the lead ahead of the EPP. Elsewhere, such as in Greece, Hungary or the Czech Republic (21 elected each) it is the EPP which is in the lead, but united the far-right forces can form a strong bloc in certain countries, notably in the Czech Republic.
It is the left-wing forces that are given favorites in the results of polls in other countries such as Romania, Portugal and Sweden, but they are also closely followed by the right-wing forces allied with the EPP. The gaps are so thin that the strengths of the different camps balance each other out. In Belgium too, the balance of power is fairly balanced, but it is the far-right and right-wing bloc that has a slight advantage over the left.