It is the principle of “give and take” that Hungary is trying to impose on the European Union. This Friday, November 18, Viktor Orban announced that his country was not going to accept the European Commission’s proposal to grant Ukraine aid of 18 billion euros for 2023. Less to help Russia in the war than to help herself. The European Union is not fooled and knows very well that this attitude amounts to “pure political blackmail”, as denounced by the European Commissioner for the Budget, Johannes Hahn.
Indeed, Budapest intends first to ensure that it escapes the freezing of 7.5 billion euros in European funds, a threat that Brussels is hovering over Hungary, before giving its approval to massive financial aid for the Ukraine.
Due to problems of corruption and dubious market allocations, Hungary is targeted by the “conditionality mechanism”, which links the allocation of European funds to respect for the fundamental principles of any rule of law. However, Hungary is not one of them and despite “progress”, the European Parliament considered on Thursday that the 17 measures announced by Budapest were not yet sufficient. Hungary therefore opted for blackmail. In a form of diplomatic game, the Hungarian Minister of Justice, Judit Varga, said she was “optimistic” about the possibility of finding “a compromise” with Brussels. She said she would send a letter to the Commission by Saturday to detail the respect of the reforms to which his country is committed.
Orban, the permanent double game
At the same time, Hungary is negotiating with Brussels the validation of its recovery plan of 5.8 billion euros, also blocked for breaches of the rule of law. On this issue, the European Union nevertheless seems more inclined to give the green light. This is not the first time that Hungary has put pressure on the European Union, since it is also blocking the adoption of the minimum tax of 15% on the profits of multinationals.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Viktor Orban has made sure not to alienate anyone: neither the European Union, on which he depends financially, nor Russia, with whom he would like to strengthen energy cooperation. If he approved the sanctions imposed on Moscow, it was always after having negotiated exceptions. So that the Kremlin does not put all European countries in the same basket. During a meeting of his party, Fidesz, at the end of September, he even declared that he would “do everything possible so that Europe withdraws these sanctions by the end of the year .” Despite the threats, the official responsible for inspecting Hungary’s anti-corruption reforms assured that they would have “no impact on his assessment”.