European manned spaceflight, why now? To analyse

The European Space Summit in Toulouse just endedno clear decision concerning European manned spaceflight but the germ of a desire to develop, for the first time, a manned space vehicle. A will that is more and more assumed, going as far as the speaking out of European astronauts themselves.

Why not before?

Because yes, for a European astronaut to go into space, you have to rely on a foreign power, and that has always been the case. The first to reach space were the Soviets with the Vostok capsule, which taken Yuri Gagarin into orbitthen Voskhod and finally Soyuz which still today takes astronauts to the international space station.

Then came the Americans with the Mercury program, then Gemini, then Apollo who served up to the space station skylab before using only the shuttles, until the end of the program in 2011. After 10 years of dependence on Russia, Americans have finally regained their inhabited access to spaceboth for professional astronauts and for tourism, thanks to their commercial programs.

Finally, China has accomplished manned space travel with its program Shenzhou. And today, to go into space, you have to rely on these three nations alone.

The European ambition for manned spaceflight began at the time of Mir, the time of the birth of a great international understanding where Americans and Russians finally found themselves in a friendly way over the long term. At that time, Europe was already one of the leaders in the field of space, designing ambitious scientific missions and dominating the market for commercial satellite launches thanks to Ariane. No doubt she had the ability to develop her own space vehicle, normal, since she has done it before.

This vehicle was the small European shuttle, Hermesa scaled-down version of its American and Soviet equivalents, which would have been launched on a Ariadne 5. But, on the one hand, known disasters by the American shuttle have greatly reduced enthusiasm for the project of another shuttle, and on the other hand, what is the point?

The Cold War is over, space is evolving towards ever more international collaborations, and other countries already have the know-how of a manned vehicle. No need to play redundancy, rather let’s use the budget to bring something new to these collaborations.

It was Europe’s choice, a choice that has paid off, because the European Space Agency (ESA), and all that is related, was able to continue its know-how in matter of launcher with Ariane, but has also acquired a brilliant experience in the design of satellites, probes and space and scientific instrumentation which can be found today on the most ambitious exploration missions. With a more modest budget than other space powers, by wanting to be good everywhere, you end up being good nowhere.

The times are changing

But here we are, we are no longer in the 2000s, even less in the 1990s. International Space Station (ISS) is not foreverthe Russians seem to want to resume their own wayand American policy prohibits any collaboration with China. There are two space stations spinning overhead right now, the ISS and the chinese space station (CSS), but soon it will certainly be much more.

The succession of the ISS is ensured in a way by the station Gateway which this time will revolve around the Moon. Just as the ISS is half American, half Russian, the Gateway will be half American and half European. Only one spacecraft will be available to access it: Orionwhich is also half American and half European, heir to the know-how of the European cargo ship ATV. In this case, the role as the importance of the ESA is ensured.

But what about the rest of the countries? If the United States has decided not to collaborate with China, this is not the case with Europe, Russia, Japan or even India or other emerging space powers. And other collaborations will emerge, others will be broken. Some will want to work hand in hand, others will want to go it alone. What will be the role of Europe?

The CSS already poses this problem, because only Chinese Shenzhou ships can access it. Indeed, there is no question of sending a capsule Crew Dragon or Starliner moor there, and Soyuz simply cannot reach the station, due to the latitude high of Russia. A manned spacecraft launched from Kourou in Guyana could theoretically reach any station.

Depending on others in a context of international collaboration was not a problem for ESA; on the other hand, in a context of misunderstanding, or at least of uncertainty, the cards are redistributed.

So what do we do ?

Voices are raised for the ability of ESA to send its own astronauts to their place of work, but no decision has yet been made, because a problem remains: what to do? stand out Hermes from the attic? A capsule based on the ship ATVin the manner ofOrion ?

The first concrete proposal actually comes from the Russians. Because yes, Europe already has a rocket suitable for manned space travel: Soyuz, operated by Arianespace, in Guyana. The Director General of Roscosmos, Dmity Rogozin, then suggested the possibility of adapting European Soyuz rockets for launching Russian Soyuz vessels from Kourou.

This materialized idea would strengthen cooperation between Europeans and Russians, although above all benefiting the latter, and would make it possible to temporarily own a manned capsule while developing a 100% European vehicle. But this goes against the desire for independence, and even temporarily it could break the enthusiasm and the dynamics of the project.

Several years will therefore be necessary to mature the reflection, let’s count a decade then of development of the vehicle, which brings us exactly to the mid-2030s, the time of the end of life of the ISS and where the new space stations of the different countries will be leaving the factories. The right time to give birth to such an ambition is therefore now!