WARSAW Bangs, wailing fire sirens and banners with references to Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. This was the case at the farmers’ and demonstration in March. And it wasn’t just the tractor crowd, but opponents of the EU and the extreme right had also infiltrated the crowd.
We are deeply in a period of bifurcation in a country that is preparing for the upcoming elections divided into different bubbles.
The country is Poland, and at a glance it is like Europe in miniature.
Things that characterize Poland, such as farmers’ protests, dissatisfaction with the EU, the rise of the extreme right and divisiveness, have been seen all over Europe this past winter. The EU elections are next summer, and the experts prophesying to the far right a success that has never been seen before. Also for the extreme right in Poland opinion polls predict sound avalanche.
This was the case at the farmers’ demonstration in Warsaw in March:
However, the situation in Poland has its own peculiarities, states the research doctor Jacek Kucharczyk.
– Political development in Poland is going in a different direction than in other parts of Europe, says Kucharczyk.
The researcher points out that last autumn, Poland left behind the eight-year reign of right-wing populists. In many other European countries, such as Italy, Slovakia or the Netherlands, populists are just about to seize or have seized the handle of power.
Kucharczyk acts as a Polish Institute of Public Affairs – as the leading researcher of the research institute.
Poland’s nationalist and antiquated Law and Justice party caused gray hairs in the EU when it trashed the country’s legal system and media. The direction was the same as in Hungary. In the end, the EU decided to freeze the billions of aid owed to Poland.
– The previous government had a constant struggle with Brussels, and the message against the EU and Germany was an essential part of its rhetoric, says Kucharczyk.
Poland’s new prime minister Donald Tusk leads the center-right Citizens’ Forum party, and one of his most important challenges, according to Kucharczyk, was restoring Poland’s position in the EU and on the international stage.
The direction changed quickly. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen promised in February exempts violations of the rule of law because of the frozen billions.
– We are impressed by your and the Polish people’s efforts to restore the rule of law as the backbone of your society, von der Leyen declared.
Another example of the growth of Poland’s role is the revival of the so-called Weimar trio. The Weimar trio is France, Germany and Poland cooperation forum. While Germany and France have traditionally been the leading countries in the EU, Poland has now managed to break into the ranks of the leading countries.
However, hardly has the new government sky been a simple victory march. “One hundred reforms in one hundred days” was Donald Tuskin election promise before last October parliamentary elections.
According to the Polish media, Tusk has succeeded in fulfilling his promise maybe a dozen of the reforms. The researcher has a clear reason for the lack of reforms:
— The president and the Constitutional Court are doing everything they can to prevent the reforms from getting through, says Kucharczyk.
President Andrzej Dudan the background is in the Justice and Law party, and the party made itself an ally out of the Constitutional Court, which is therefore now holding back the actions of the new government.
Elections measure government support
The real measure of the confidence of the new government will come when regional elections are held in Poland on Sunday. Tusk has said that they are for Poland even more important as last October’s general election was.
Kucharczyk sums up the meaning of the elections like this:
– The battle for Poles’ hearts is not over yet. The elections will either seal the victory of the new government, or the elections will show that the Law and Justice party still has a solid position in the country, says Kucharczyk.
Some polls predict relatively even support for Tusk’s center-right party and the nationalist Law and Justice party. However, according to the worst-case scenario, the elections could even mean the end of the Law and Justice party.
The Law and Justice party was the largest party in the autumn parliamentary elections more than 35 percent with the voice part. However, the former ruling party failed to form a government.
After the elections, Law and Justice drifted into internal disputes. More and more suspicions of corruption are revealed against party members. Last week it was reported that the leader of the party, who served as the Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki is subject to corruption suspicions.
In the video below, researcher Jacek Kucharczyk explains why regional elections are important in Poland:
Farmers got sympathy
In Poland, farmers have been protesting for a year already. Similar protests have been seen elsewhere in Europe, but what makes the situation in Poland special is that the finger of blame points not only at the EU, but also at Ukraine. Polish farmers are annoyed by the cheap grain shipped from Ukraine, and they have blocked the shipments by blocking the border stations.
The farmers have managed to get the sympathies of the people on their side, and Tusk, known as a solid supporter of the EU, has had to balance between the EU and the farmers.
– He has criticized EU regulation and transferred responsibility for it. So he goes to Brussels and returns to the farmers saying: I managed to negotiate changes that meet your demands, says Kucharczyk.
Support for the EU has traditionally been very high in Poland, even though right-wing populists and the far-right who criticize the EU have even more than 40 percent support, according to opinion polls. The phenomenon is partly explained by Poland’s traumatic experience as part of the Soviet bloc and the desire to belong to the West.
Now you can see the change, says Kucharzcyk.
– The EU is criticized more than before.
The far-right Konfederacja party, which is trying to take advantage of the protest mood, has its part. The party has been in opinion polls from time to time even third largest party.
Leader of the Konfederacja party In the video, Krzysztof Bosak explains what his party is against:
The Polish parliamentary elections in October showed how divided Poland is politically. In western Poland, the current governing parties won in all regions, while in eastern Poland the situation was the opposite for the Law and Justice party, except for the Warsaw region.
According to the researcher, the polarization is at least partially artificial, and he blames the Law and Justice party for that.
– The division is basically due to the politics of the Law and Justice party. The confrontation worked in their favor for a long time.