Dried up riverbeds, historical discoveries uncovered under water and destroyed grain crops. The European Commission’s joint research center warned in August that the drought could be the worst in Europe in 500 years.
The drought has already had a drastic effect this summer: agriculture has been in great difficulty in terms of both grain production and vegetable cultivation in several countries. In addition, transport has been in difficulties when the waters of Europe’s large rivers have been too low for barges.
In addition, electricity production has decreased significantly when hydropower has not been able to be used in the previous model in several countries. Nuclear power plants, on the other hand, have had a shortage of cooling water. Coal-fired power plants have also been in trouble, for example in Germany, when coal has not been obtained by barge transport.
A lot of forest has also burned.
Now, however, relief is coming to the drought, as there has been quite a lot of rain in Western and Central Europe in the first half of September, says ‘s meteorologist Elias Paakkanen.
– According to ECMWF, the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts, this current week is also going to be rainier than average in a large part of Europe. We can therefore expect relief from the drought, says Paakkanen.
However, the situation will not get any easier, as the western part of Spain and the eastern part of Portugal, for example, are predicted to remain with little rain.
– The drought will continue, although the worst predictions of a 500-year drought do not seem to be coming true, says the researcher Harri Myllyniemi from the Finnish Environmental Center in Syke.
1. Why is it record dry in Europe this year?
Elias Paakkanen (EP): Large-scale atmospheric flows have been favorable to the development of the situation. The jet stream in the upper troposphere has on average taken a rather northerly route, which means that the rains have also gone around much of Europe from the north.
High pressure has often been able to lock over Central Europe for quite long periods, and very hot air has been able to flow from Africa on several occasions.
2. The last time it was record dry was in 2018. Are there more and more dry years ahead?
Harri Myllyniemi (HM): Severe drought periods are predicted to come more and more frequently and more strongly. The closing high pressure in the Azores is also predicted to become more common and stronger. This brings with it a hot and low-rainfall weather similar to last summer.
EP: High latitudes warm more than low latitudes, so the temperature differences between the north and the south even out. This also means a weakening of the mean westerly circulation that controls the big weather.
The weakening of the circulation makes it easier for a large weather system to lock in place for a longer period of time, so long, hot and dry high pressure periods like this summer will become more common.
On the other hand, it will also be summer in Europe, when the rains will be locked over Europe for long periods of time. In this case, for example, urban flooding is possible.
3. How serious is the situation regarding drinking water, for example?
HM: In France, for example, there is a shortage of drinking water in about 100 municipalities and it has to be brought in by tankers. There are more than 35,000 municipalities in France, which means that this is only a few percent of the municipalities. In many countries, household water consumption is restricted.
4. We have seen pictures of, among other things, dried up riverbeds. Where has all that water from them gone?
HM: The riverbeds have dried up mainly because there has been rarely enough water. In addition, the heat causes rainwater to evaporate.
5. What does the exceptional drought in Europe mean for nature? What about in the coming years and decades?
HM: Nature has not adapted to exceptional drought. Not all plants adapt to this and as the climate changes, the flora and fauna also change. This is a threat to biodiversity. Forest deaths due to this drought can also be expected in the coming years.
In the Mediterranean countries, especially Spain and Portugal, agriculture in its current form and scale may become impossible. Plant damage and insect damage will be significantly worse.
6. Is it possible to combat the exceptional drought with some means, even locally?
HM: Saving and monitoring water and improving the condition of the soil mainly affect the consequences of drought, the latter of course also drying the soil.
7. Is there enough water in Finland? Also in the future?
(HM): Although Finland is a country of thousands of lakes, we also have drought risks. Even in Finland, drought periods are predicted to lengthen and intensify despite the increase in precipitation.
Since we have almost no irrigation systems in agriculture, on the other hand, we are not as dependent on water as, for example, Spain. On the other hand, it is more difficult to get additional water to the fields if necessary.
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Several European countries are suffering from a water shortage and there is no relief in sight – the current drought could be the worst in 500 years, warns the research institute