Europe has had its worst drought in 250 years

According to a study published in Earth’s Future by the German Center for Environmental Research, Helmoltz Center for Environmental Researchno such widespread and long-lasting drought has occurred in Europe since the mid-eighteenth century.^and century. The years 2018-2020 represent a new benchmark in matter drought, and an event like this is now more likely to happen again in the future due to the global warming.

The droughts of the past were colder

German scientists studied historical sighting data weather reportand recreated the missing ones with climate models with a grid (accuracy) of 50 kilometers, to be able to compare the gravity from the 2018-2020 drought to those that have occurred in the past, going all the way back to 1766. The team used the mHM model to estimate soil moisture content based on observations of temperature and precipitation the past. The drought in question affected about a third of the land European (36%) over the period from April 2018 to December 2020, i.e. 33 months in total! Over this period, the drought really raged 12.2 months divided into several times. Central Europe was the most affected area, such as Germany, the Czech Republic, but also France. In comparison, only the drought of 1857 to 1860 exceeded this duration35 months in total, including 13 months of drought spread over this period, without being as extensive and intense as that of 2018-2020.

The recent drought has been accentuated by an aggravating factor: the temperature of theair. This has reached a level ofanomaly historical, 2.8°C above the average, between 2018 and 2020.” Past droughts could be severe but they were colder than recent droughts,” according to Dr. Rohini Kumar who worked on the study. The heat has truly changed the situation in recent years, the ” The consequences of a drought are more serious if, in addition to the lack of rain, heat is involved. Evaporation losses are greater, leading to lower moisture in the soil,” says the scientist. The agricultural yields (corn, butbarley) have decreased significantly in the countries affected by the 2018-2020 drought: 20 to 40% less in the Benelux countries, Germany and France.

But this recent drought has not suddenly faded in 2020: if the situation of the superficial soils has improved thanks to the precipitations of thewinter 2020, the deeper part of the soils (two meters below the surface) continued to suffer from this lack of water in 2021 and 2022. In areas suffering from drought since 2018, rainfall has indeed been abundant in 2021, allowing agricultural activities to resume, but this moisture has failed to penetrate the deepest layers of the soil.

Periods of 200 months of drought possible by 2100

The German research center insists that European states must be prepared to face again extreme droughts, like the one the continent is currently experiencing, and durable. As proof, the results of their study on the evolution of future droughts, by the year 2100: in a scenario with global warming that continues to worsen, but in a limited way, droughts could extend over 100 months and cover 50% of Europe. In the case of a more extreme scenario with a rapid acceleration of warming, droughts could extend over 200 months and cover 70% of Europe.

The Helmoltz Center warns that measures of prevention and adaptation must be put in place as soon as possible in order to limit the consequences at the level of theAgriculture and access to water: provide underground water reservoirs, invest inirrigation intelligent, developing more resistant plant species and above all, developing ecological and sustainable water management.

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