Europe is dying little by little. In the proper sense of the term. “Since 2020, there have been one million more deaths than births in the EU of 27 member states,” summarizes geographer Laurent Chalard. However, the EU, with its almost 450 million inhabitants, seems in great shape: has it not recorded a growth of more than 17 million inhabitants since 2003, as much as the population of the Down ? Doesn’t it appear in this area as the third world power, after China and India but ahead of the United States? Figures to be handled with caution, as they poorly hide the demographic winter that has been at work for half a century already, and which nothing, not even immigration, seems to be able to stop. Since 1975, Europe has no longer renewed its generations. A trend from which no country is now immune, not even Ireland, yesterday still considered the good student in terms of births. As for France, last year it experienced its lowest birth rate since the Second World War.
Unsurprisingly, the demographic weight of the European Union is decreasing around the world. On a planet of 8 billion inhabitants, the 27 Member States only represent 6%, half as much as in 1960. A decline set to continue, while from 2025, the population of EU should start to decline. In 2070, the EU will have only 1 in 25 inhabitants in the world.
The first risk of this collapse is obviously its geopolitical impact, a subject little discussed in the current electoral campaign. But it’s not the only one. Because Europe will very quickly become a continent of old people: already, the median age of its inhabitants has increased over the last two decades, from 39 to almost 45 years old. Those under 15, formerly more numerous than those over 65, have become a minority: 14.9% for the former compared to 21.3% for the latter. Who says fewer young people, says less creativity, but also fewer workers: the active population of the European Union, reduced by 5 million people over twenty years, could still fall by 18% by 2050… We measure quickly the disastrous consequences for our pension systems and our health needs…
Europe is subjected to the law of an implacable reality
But not only are demographic curves stubborn, but there are few ways to make them deviate from their trajectory. “There are many levers to pull, such as pronatalist policies or selective immigration, but these mainly have short-term effects, which do not make it possible to reverse long-term structural trends,” says Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.
Europe is simply subject to the law of an implacable reality: from the moment a country becomes rich, its inhabitants no longer have children. As the European Union became prosperous before others, it was a pioneer in terms of demographic decline. Will she have the same lead time to give younger generations the desire to procreate?
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