(Finance) – Observers believe one is taken for granted downward revision of growth estimates for the euro area economy, and for Italy, on the occasion of the publication of the summer economic forecasts scheduled for Thursday 14 July. According to rumors collected by ANSA, growth for 2022 should be reduced by a few decimal places compared to the 2.7% estimated in May. For theItaly GDP will fall from the 2.4% forecast in May, but will remain nonetheless above 2%.
The downward revision should be more significant for the 2023: in the euro area, growth should suffer a cut of about 1 percentage point from 2.3% in May. The war in Ukraine and the gas crisis are weighing on them, with analysts fearing that Russia may extend the scheduled maintenance of the strategic Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, significantly impacting storage plans for the winter.
The European Commission publishes annually two overall forecasts (spring and autumn) e two interim forecasts (winter and summer). The interim forecasts cover annual and quarterly levels of GDP and inflation for the current year and the following year for all Member States, as well as aggregate data at the euro area and EU level.
There were also warnings of the imminent cut in estimates at the end of the Eurogroup on Monday. “What we see is that economic growth is proving quite resilient this year. However, we can expect a downward revision and even more for next year due to many uncertainties and risks“, he said Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice President of the European Commission. “Inflation will be revised upwards,” he added.
“We stay going into troubled waters“, said the commissioner for the economy Paolo Gentiloni, alluding to” a very limited, reduced and slowed economic growth “due to the growing energy crisis.