For having been right before everyone else (by alerting Europeans to the Russian danger), Estonia, the other Baltic countries and the Scandinavian States are today voices listened to in Europe. We must therefore listen when, one step ahead, the Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs encourages Europeans to prepare to send troops to Ukraine to guarantee peace in the event that it comes sooner than expected. don’t think so. “For Ukraine, the best guarantee of security would be to join NATO,” explains Margus Tsahkna to Financial Times. But if the United States objects, EU armies should deploy soldiers there immediately after a possible ceasefire in order to dissuade Russia from attacking again,” explains the Estonian.
In the meantime, the Balts and Nordics are preparing for all scenarios. Because events are accelerating on the Russian-Ukrainian front, but also in the Baltic Sea. In Ukraine, Joe Biden has just authorized the use of American long-range missiles (ATACMS) and antipersonnel mines in response to the sending of North Korean soldiers to Russia. In Northern Europe, the – hybrid – war is also intensifying. Two submarine telecommunications cables were cut in the Baltic Sea a few hours apart at the exact moment when a Chinese cargo ship, the Yi Peng 3, commanded by a Russian officer, was passing by. The Danish Navy boarded the ship. One of the affected fiber optic cables connected Germany to Finland; the other, Sweden to Lithuania, where the Internet connection was briefly interrupted. The episode recalls the damage caused to the Balticonnector underwater gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland in October 2023, attributed by Helsinki to “an external power”.
“Sabotage activities are increasing in Estonia and in our immediate environment,” notes former Estonian intelligence boss Kaimo Kuusk, now the Defense Minister’s right-hand man. “These are usually small incidents: last year, the Minister of the Interior’s car was vandalized by petty thugs and, in the same way, statues are regularly damaged by delinquents paid by Russia.” These incivilities are part of a more global psychological war. “It’s about generating concern by creating a climate of instability,” explains Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The Russians are in a permanent state of war.”
Neighboring Russia and geographically close to Ukraine, the Baltic and Nordic countries are suffering the direct impact of Vladimir Putin’s initiatives in a region which has been the subject of a low-intensity war since the 2010s, by means of airspace violations and, today, sabotage. It is no coincidence that Stockholm has just reissued its 32-page brochure, distributed to 5 million Swedish households, which lists the first reflexes and essential products to stock at home in the event of war… “It “You have to understand that the Russians are in a permanent state of war,” continues Kaimo Kuusk. “They are constantly planning a conflict somewhere. If they win in Ukraine, the Russians will then target Moldova, first on their list,” predicts. he.
Northern Europe is also in Moscow’s sights. This is evidenced by the military reorganization underway in the “Leningrad military region”, according to the Soviet terminology resurrected by Putin. “Just behind the borders of the European Union, the Russian army is currently modernizing its infrastructure with a view to a planned reinforcement after the end of the Ukrainian war, explains Finnish military analyst Tomas Ries.” This reorganization provides for an increase in personnel, from 40,000 soldiers currently to 100,000 soldiers for the next decade. We understand better why Estonia, for its part, is increasing its defense budget from 3% of GDP to 3.7% (in 2026) and is ultimately aiming for Poland’s commitment: 4.1% of GDP. “Putin has not changed his objective,” recalls Jonatan Vseviov. “He still wants to recover 100% of Ukraine and redesign Europe with a buffer zone that would push NATO’s borders back to where they were in 1997” [NDLR : avant l’adhésion de tous les ex-pays de l’Est]. And once again, Estonia would like us to listen to it.
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