Published: Just now
The opposition in Turkey is reuniting before the election scandal against Erdogan.
The chance of victory has increased – something that may benefit Sweden.
– It would be very good for Sweden’s NATO application, says Turkey expert Paul Levin.
Leading opposition politician Meral Aksener, leader of the nationalist Lyi party, is returning to the coalition after arguments over how it should be led.
Together with four other parties, they are now forming a united opposition that could defeat incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.
– The prospects are probably quite good. Erdogan had pretty bad opinion numbers, but seemed to be on the rise before the earthquake, he says and continues:
– Judging by the opinion figures in the parliamentary election, the rise has been slowed by the slow handling of the disaster. There are good opportunities to press the shortcomings that have existed and the criticism that has been directed at the weak economy.
“Very good”
If Erdogan is forced to hand over power, the Swedish NATO application may benefit, according to Levin.
The opposition parties have criticized Erdogan’s handling of the NATO process and expressed that they want rapid ratification.
– An opposition victory would be very good for Sweden. Although they also want to make sure that Sweden wants to implement the trilateral memorandum, they have not had the same prestige in this matter.
– They also want to resume better contact with the EU and have better relations with the West.
“A lot is at stake for Erdogan”
However, there are fears that Erdogan would not accept an election loss and hand over power. Levin flags that he may “do everything to avoid it”.
– One can only state that a lot is at stake for Erdogan. He has led the country towards deeper polarization and de-democratization. There are also serious allegations of corruption against him so he has every interest in staying in power.
– It must be remembered that Erdogan has a grip on the state’s collective resources, including the electoral system and the judiciary. The opposition would have to win a convincing victory and they have not chosen their most charismatic candidate.
Erdogan has previously announced that the Turkish will be held on May 14, a month earlier than planned. According to Reuters sources, however, the earthquake disaster may have forced it to be postponed until June 18.
– It is an exciting and turbulent time ahead of us in Turkish politics and it is difficult to say what will happen and what consequences it will have for the Swedish NATO application.