Turkey is trying to build relations with Bashar al-Assad’s regime again, but there are enough problems in the way of negotiations.
Riots broke out in Turkey at the beginning of the week in several cities where many Syrians live.
The unrest started when a Syrian man was arrested on suspicion of molesting an underage child.
In the night between Sunday and Monday, angry mobs attacked shops owned by Syrians in the city of Kayseri in central Turkey, among other things. The unrest spread to several other cities and around 500 people have been arrested in Turkey.
The background of the riots is the long-standing tension between Syrians and Turks, especially in poorer areas. There are more than three million Syrians in Turkey, although estimates vary somewhat.
The Syrian guests stayed for years
With the Syrian civil war, Turkey welcomed Syrian refugees as guests, who were expected to go home soon, as long as the situation calmed down. But the Syrians stayed, and the Syrian conflict, which began in 2011, still hasn’t reached a final solution.
The attitude towards Syrians has changed drastically in Turkey, among other things as a result of the country’s economic crisis. Some nationalist politicians and their supporters claim that Syrians are taking Turkish jobs. Some Turks also believe that Syrians are undermining wages and receiving unreasonable benefits from the state.
The events in Turkey are reflected in northern Syria, where demonstrators have protested against attacks on Syrians. Armed groups have also fired on Turkish troops.
Erdoğan seeks contact with an old enemy
In addition to the events in Turkey, the president is also behind the protests in northern Syria Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Syria policy.
Erdoğan has long supported the rebel Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad answer, but lately the sound on the clock has changed.
Last week, President Erdoğan said that he sees no obstacles to restoring relations with President Assad. The statement was preceded by Assad’s comment that Syria is ready to discuss the normalization of relations.
Erdoğan recalled the times before the Syrian war, when the Erdoğan and Assad families spent time together.
Trade between the two countries flourished and Erdoğan described Assad as a “brother”:
When the Syrian protests began in the spring of 2011, Turkey initially tried to advise its partner Assad to talk with the opposition about reforms. When the advice did not work, Turkey moved to support the rebels in the conflict that turned into a civil war.
Turkey’s Syria policy first went from warm relations with Assad to supporting the rebels who oppose him. Now the circle is closing as Turkey looks for ways to restore relations.
Turkey has troops in northern Syria
Erdoğan is making quite a U-turn and in northern Syria the protesters asked if Turkey is now selling its northern Syrian partners to Assad.
The Turkish army, together with rebel factions, controls an area of almost 9,000 square kilometers in northern Syria. Turkey has prepared various projects to send Syrians there.
President According to Erdoğan around 670,000 Syrians have already moved to Turkish-controlled areas in Syria. But the future of these areas is also uncertain.
There are many times in Syria made it clear that Turkish troops on its soil must leave as a condition for restoring relations.
Syrian Kurds in Turkey’s sights
However, in recent years, Erdoğan’s biggest concern has not been Assad, but the Kurdish-led regime in northeastern Syria. In Turkey’s view, the regime is part of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been fighting the Turkish armed forces for years.
In 2019, Turkey invaded northeastern Syria when then-US Pres Donald Trump messed up in a phone conversation with Erdoğan and gave the green light to Turkey.
For the United States, the Kurds have been a valuable ally in the fight against the extremist group ISIS, and the United States still has troops in northern Syria.
Ankara is probably currently thinking about what Trump’s return to power could mean. For Turkey, it might open a new opportunity to take care of the so-called Kurdish problem in Syria off the agenda.
Restoring relations with Assad is unlikely to make Syrians in Turkey leave in droves for Syria – except by force. If the unrest against the Syrians continues, it might encourage people to aspire in another direction from Turkey, i.e. towards Europe.