The epidemic threshold is defined as the incidence of a disease from which it can be considered that a epidemic is ongoing, the incidence being the number of new cases over a period.
When the epidemic threshold is crossed …
This presupposes regular monitoring of the disease. Thus, in France, the Sentinels network monitors the incidence of seasonal flu. Speaking of which, when the epidemic threshold is exceeded for two consecutive weeks, theepidemic is installed. When an epidemic threshold is crossed, it does not necessarily mean that the infection is more dangerous, but that it affects a large number of people.
Examples of epidemic thresholds: influenza and gastroenteritis
The epidemic threshold is variable depending on the sickness.
In Swiss, the epidemic threshold for seasonal influenza is calculated based on the last ten seasons, without the 2009-2010 pandemic. It was thus set at 68 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015-2016.
In France, in 2016, the epidemic threshold of influenza syndromes was 173 cases per 100,000 population and that of acute diarrhea (gastroenteritis) was 194 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
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