(Finance) – Forecasts of photovoltaic energy production increasingly accurate thanks to artificial intelligence (AI): this is the result obtained by a group of researchers AENEAS who published the study in the scientific journal Energies. “We demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach using real production data from a photovoltaic system located at the ENEA Research Center in Portici (Naples), demonstrating a clear improvement in the precision of photovoltaic production forecasts – explains the co-author of the study Amedeo Buonanno, researcher at the ENEA Smart Grid and Energy Networks Laboratory at the Department of Energy Technologies and Renewable Sources -. This is a crucial aspect to limit imbalances in the electricity grid, to optimize the operation of generation, load and storage resources and to reduce operating costs.”
To achieve this, meteorological models that estimate photovoltaic energy production were combined with a machine learning algorithm that integrates historical generation data, thus increasing the accuracy of the forecast. This new ENEA methodology for forecasting photovoltaic generation offers significant advantages both in terms of versatility and applicability. Its generality allows it to be used in a wide range of scenarios, even with reduced data availability as in the case of new installations.
“The approach we propose – Buonanno underlines – adapts effectively to solar systems of different sizes, including small ones installed in condominiums. For the latter, it is possible to develop an initial prediction model based on the technical characteristics of the system (such as nominal power and orientation of the panels), which can subsequently be refined using machine learning techniques and the use of historical generation data. Once trained, the models that have shown the best results require relatively limited computational resources to generate accurate predictions. This feature facilitates its implementation, considerably expanding the possibilities of practical application in different operational contexts.”
Italy has made notable progress in the renewable energy sector, with a installed capacity of photovoltaic systems who surpassed the 30 GW in 2023, marking an increase of 21% compared to 2022. However, the variability of solar radiation still represents one of the main challenges in managing photovoltaic energy production.
“The ENEA study – he explains Maria Valenti, head of the ENEA Smart Grid and Energy Networks Laboratory and contact person for the MISSION project – is part of the MISSION project which aims to develop innovative integrated energy systems, optimizing the interaction between different energy sources (renewable and conventional) and energy carriers (electrical and thermal). Through intelligent and coordinated management, based on demand analysis and production forecasts, the project aims to maximize overall efficiency and improve the operational management of energy microgrids, one of the most promising models of transformation of the electricity system, thus accelerating the transition towards a more sustainable energy future.”