“The decline of the European industrial empire”: the tone of Swiss daily life The weather, although not inclined to grandiloquence, was gloomy when, at the end of last February, the Swiss manufacturer of solar panels Meyer Burger announced the closure of its factory in Freiberg, near Dresden in Germany, to concentrate on its production sites. American production. And for good reason ! With this announcement, 10% of the global production capacity of solar panels is erased with the stroke of a pen. “The Europeans are losing this strategic industry,” pointed out the CEO of Meyer Burger. Whose fault is it ? First to us; To find the culprit, let’s hold up a mirror. We will see energy policies, national or European, inconsistent, real time bombs which exploded with the war in Ukraine.
Without returning to a subject widely covered in these columns, let us have no doubt: the trial of European energy policy, which today is paid for in energy prices much higher than those of our competitors, will take place at the ballot boxes on June 9, on the occasion of the elections to the European Parliament. And the verdict should be harsh. Also in question is American tax policy. In the case of Meyer Burger, the figures speak for themselves: the Swiss company will raise up to 262 million euros to finance its new production sites in Colorado and Arizona. In return, it expects to receive… 1.4 billion euros in tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, the main American tax tool to support technologies.
End of the story ? Far from it: our European unhappiness does not bring American happiness. Because, seen from the United States, the fight for green reindustrialization is far from won. To understand what is happening in the world of “cleantech”, these decarbonization technologies, we need to look at the world through the glasses of the 21st century, not the 20th. The war is not Euro-American, but Sino-American; Europe is, in this case, only a spectator who pays more and more dearly for his ticket. According to BloombergNEF, at the end of 2024, solar cells and modules made in the United States will cost 18.5 cents per watt after the tax credit is granted, compared to 15.6 cents for a product from South Asia -East.
Becoming China’s Europe
We understand, therefore, the fear expressed in the United States: “to become Europe” for China (sic) ! In reality, they already are: three quarters of the world’s solar panels are produced in the Chinese provinces, an even greater proportion when it comes to inputs: polysilicon, cells, etc. If the American strategy aims to reverse this trend, the position of Beijing, until the end of the decade, will remain ultradominant. One thing is certain: dumping, protectionism and other trade war weapons will become the key words of global trade in the years to come.
The battle that opens gives the there of the next energy wars in a world in transition. In the 19th and 20th centuries, it was access to primary energy sources – oil, gas, coal, etc. – which was strategic and determined the balance of power. In the 21st century, it is energy converters, that is to say the technical devices allowing these primary sources to be transformed into useful energy for heating or lighting, which are at the heart of the challenges of the transition: panels solar, batteries, etc. Hence the major role of strategic metals and rare earths. China, which has understood this for a long time, has gained a formidable position of strength from it.
This crucial subject of energy converters is the subject of a fascinating dialogue between Jean-Paul Bouttes, former director of strategy and chief economist of EDF, and the philosopher of science Dominique Bourg, in a work entitled Energy. History and issues (ed. Frémeaux & Associés). The economic and geopolitical consequences of this shift are major: the new energy wars will be played out in mines, factories and research laboratories.
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