“When will this epidemic end!, When will we return to our old life!” There are few people who have not been with reproaches like this in the last two years.
Reproaches like this may now be “coming soon”.
There is growing confidence that the Omicron variant is rapidly moving the UK into the post-pandemic era.
What will happen next? Of course, the virus does not disappear when you click the finger. From now on, the word we will hear instead of pandemic will be “endemic”. This undoubtedly means that Covid is permanent in our lives.
The question is; Are we at the beginning of the new Covid era and what does this mean for our lives?
Professor Julian Hiscox from the University of Liverpool answered my question, “We’re almost there, at least for England, we’re at the beginning of the end.”
Hiscox states that “in 2022, life will be almost pre-pandemic.”
What has changed is our immunity to the virus. We were vulnerable to the virus that emerged in Wuhan two years ago. It was a completely new virus to our immune system; We didn’t have any medicine or vaccine.
What happened next can be compared to throwing a Molotov cocktail at a fireworks factory.
Covid has spread all over the world at an explosive rate, but the same fire cannot burn with the same intensity forever.
There were two options; Either we would put out the Covid fire or it would go out in the long run. It would be mixed with other endemic diseases such as influenza, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria.
According to many experts, there can be no other end than this for a virus that is transmitted through the air without the person realizing it.
Virologist Elisabetta Groppelli from the University of London defends this view, saying, “Endemism was written in the codes of this virus.”
“I’m very optimistic,” Groppelli says.
Could this trend change?
Epidemiologists studying the spread of diseases use the definition of endemic if data from a disease are stable and predictable.
Professor Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist at Imperial College, says this definition is also used to convey that the disease is still circulating, but that we don’t need to limit our lives.
Ghani conveys the view that we are moving very quickly into this new era.
The only thing that can change this positive trend is; There may be a new variant that will break Omicron’s dominance and cause more severe disease.
Just because a disease is endemic does not automatically mean it is mild.
Professor Azra Ghani reminds us that there are diseases that are considered endemic but cause great deaths.
Smallpox circulated endemic for thousands of years, killing a third of those infected. Malaria is also considered endemic, but it kills 600,000 people a year.
However, in the case of Covid, there are signs that we are getting used to the disease and that our body is learning to fight the virus.
“Once the Omicron ends, immunity will be high for a while, at least in the UK,” says Professor Eleanor Riley of the University of Edinburgh.
This is still a pandemic for many countries
Prof Hiscox also reminds that 200 – 300 deaths are recorded per day during bad flu seasons and states that he thinks that strict quarantine measures will never come back.
Doctor Groppelli also states that the health sector must now accept that the flu season is also the coronavirus season.
Professor Eleanor Riley expresses the view that while masks are not mandatory, they will be a common sight just like in Asian countries.
However, these are valid predictions for countries where vaccination is progressing intensively.
The rest of the planet is still far from the beginning of the end of the epidemic. Some poor countries still have not been able to vaccinate all vulnerable groups.
Doctor Groppelli says this is still a pandemic for many parts of the world.