ELECTIONS. 8 p.m., first official estimates announced. Emmanuel Macron would have won this election, with a slightly larger gap than the polls had predicted. All info.
Presidential results near you
[Mis à jour le 25 avril à 00h10] According to the first estimates published and refined during the evening, 58.8% of voters would have voted for Emmanuel Macron this Sunday, April 24 in the second round of the presidential election (Ipsos-Storia estimate for France Télévisions). The outgoing president therefore emerges as the winner of this election against Marine Le Pen, who nevertheless obtains her highest result, with around 42.1% of the vote, still according to these estimates. Of course, the final result will not be known until late at night, or very early in the morning.
The turnout at 5 p.m. was 63.2%, compared to 65.3% in the second round of 2017, which already opposed Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. Participation down at 5 p.m. So, with even a record, such a low participation had not been recorded since 1969. At 8 p.m., the first figures which will be communicated on television, radio or on our site, correspond to the estimates carried out by various polling institutes. Caution, however, an “estimate”, as its name suggests, is only an approximation of the final result, and cannot be used as a factual and precise result.
Are the results estimated at 8 p.m. reliable?
For several decades, the “results” estimated at 8 p.m. have always been very close to the reality of the final results. The 8 p.m. estimates, made by the polling institutes, are more relevant than the first partial national results given by the services of the Ministry of the Interior, which bring up the data, first, from the polling stations closed at 6 p.m. Results from major cities – which do not close polling stations until 8 p.m. – are incorporated into these second-round results later. The distorting effects on this election night devoted to the second round of the 2022 presidential election can therefore be explained by the vote of city dwellers, which is not quite the same as the vote of the countryside and small towns. It must therefore be borne in mind that these second round estimates could be considered relevant: the name of the future President of the Republic announced at 8 p.m. will most likely be the correct one.
What bias in the results announced at 8 p.m.?
However, there remains a bias caused by the closing at 8 p.m. in large cities, which have a specific sociology and electoral habits, while the projections are mainly based on polling stations closing at 7 p.m., in other words in medium-sized towns. or rural areas. This is the reason why we could observe a “remontada” of Jean-Luc Mélenchon a fortnight ago, once the first estimates were delivered. The Insoumis gained 2 points in a few hours.
In fact, the final results are communicated by the Ministry of the Interior in the evening. If these official results of the second round of the presidential election are initially given in a partial way, it is because the counting in the polling stations does not begin until 8 p.m. in the major cities of France. The consolidated results are therefore communicated in the evening and it is necessary to wait until late at night to have the final results.
What is the difference between the estimates of polling institutes and the results of the Ministry of the Interior?
At 8 p.m., the estimates made by the polling institutes are more relevant than the first partial national results given by the services of the Ministry of the Interior, which bring up the data, first, from the polling stations closed at 7 p.m. Results from major cities – which do not close polling stations until 8 p.m. – are incorporated into these second-round results later. The distorting effects on this election evening devoted to the second round of the 2022 presidential election can thus be explained by the differentiation between the vote of city dwellers and the vote of inhabitants of the countryside and small towns.
Why can’t we find estimates before 8 p.m.?
No result, even partial, nor any estimate of these polls can be made public before this time, for a very simple reason: voters can vote in certain communes of France until 8 p.m., communicate figures on the votes then that the ballot is not closed could skew the last moments of the ballot. Throughout the election night, waves of data on the regional and departmental elections are expected, until the figures for the final results are published, late in the evening, for the 2nd round of the two elections. The fact remains that the estimates of the results of the presidential election at 8 p.m., calculated by the polling institutes (Elabe for BFMTV, Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France Television, Ifop-Fiducial for TF1 and LCI, among others) very quickly turn out to be very close to the final results, thanks to a very rigorous methodology, used on the “exit polls” or on a score in a panel of the first polling stations which gave their results. The polling institutes then give their estimates after anticipating the biases and making corrections.
Frédéric Dabi, Director General Opinion at Ifop, reminds Le Monde that his institute is based on 300 offices. And he adds: “these estimates given at 8 p.m. are in no way polls, but estimates of results which are based on a sample of polling stations”. For its part, Ipsos-Sopra Steria has 500 polling stations where pollsters transmit the number of voters, the scores on the first 200 ballots counted, and the result in the polling station at the end of the counting. “If all the polling stations closed at 8 p.m., no institute would be able to give an estimate before 8:50 p.m. or 9 p.m.,” adds Jean-François Doridot of Ipsos.
What the law says about releasing earnings estimates before 8 p.m.
The law is very clear concerning the dissemination of the results of this presidential election: according to article L. 52-2 of the electoral code, “no election results, partial or final, may be communicated to the public by means of the press or by any means of communication to the public electronically, in mainland France, before the closing of the last polling station in mainland France”. Anyone disseminating information the day before or on election day, before the closing of the last polling stations, whether or not they are a journalist, on a media or on social networks, incurs a fine of 75,000 euros. Objective: to prevent voters from being influenced in their vote by the first results announced and from changing their initial intention.
What figures are circulating before the 8 p.m. estimates on election day?
Before the 8 p.m. estimates, the election day is generally punctuated by other figures: the Ministry of the Interior counts the number of votes throughout the day and broadcasts at 12 p.m. and then at 5 p.m. the temporary participation rates. In the first round, at noon, this participation figure stood at 25.48%, followed by a figure of 65% at 5 p.m., down from 2017 (69%), for a final participation of 73.69%, relatively low compared to 77.77% in 2017. With this turnout, we can calculate the level of abstention, again very revealing information. This data will once again be eagerly awaited this Sunday, April 24, given fears that abstention will be historically high for a presidential election. The participation rate at 8 p.m. is also communicated by the Ministry of the Interior and adjusted throughout the evening.