What would Emmanuel Macron’s resignation really change in the political crisis? His departure could constitute a solution, but without eliminating all the blockages.
France is ungovernable and until now, no one has the solution to break the political impasse. The fall of the Barnier government highlights the institutional crisis that France is going through. As there is no majority in the Assembly and since no political force from the three blocs (NFP – Macronist Base – LR – RN) wants to work in a government coalition, it is impossible for a Prime Minister, whoever he is , to appear legitimate for a majority of deputies.
To get out of the crisis, Emmanuel Macron attempted, with the Barnier government, a setup based on a crutch that is surprising in many respects: having the approval of the RN and its promise not to censor a priori the tenant of Matignon. This would have lasted three months and will have pushed the tenant of Matignon to an unprecedented deference for the extreme right. In vain.
And now ? How to get out of the impasse? The question of Emmanuel Macron’s resignation is not – or is no longer – a Pavlovian demand of certain frustrated opponents. The hypothesis is now considered very seriously by political figures who are neither left nor far right. “There is only one solution left, it is a new presidential election. It must be anticipated,” argued LR Jean-François Copé on BFMTV on November 27. A statement that left its mark, giving a new sound to a demand that we had heard until then within LFI or the RN. “For Copé, a member of a government party, to open the breach of resignation, it is dangerous. Others can rush in. All this can happen very quickly,” said a minister to Le Parisien. .
Marine Le Pen, whose role in this censorship was decisive, made a public declaration in the room of the 4 columns of the National Assembly on December 2: the president of the RN deputies considered before the press that Emmanuel Macron had only three solutions: dissolution (which he can only decide from June), a reshuffle (which according to her would be of no use) and his own resignation. Understand whoever wants.
But in reality we must take the question of the president’s resignation out of a partisan or activist prism. It is now increasingly posed on an institutional level, with everyone looking for a way to ensure stability in the country again. “Who is at the origin of the political chaos? It was the President of the Republic when he carried out this dissolution that even his own friends did not understand,” Charles asked on November 27 de Courson, general budget rapporteur, and executive of the Liot parliamentary group, although represented in the Barnier government, since the appointment of Valérie Létard.
A presidential election in 2025?
But can the resignation of the head of state really open a new chapter? We must first keep in mind that nothing obliges him to end his mandate before May 2027. He has even made it known several times that he would not resign, considering himself a guarantor of the stability of the institutions. The head of state also believes that while Europe faces the war in Ukraine and increasingly intense international threats, France’s voice could be weakened if the presidency of the Republic were dismissed. .
To the press who openly asked him the question of his departure from the Elysée, while the president was traveling to Saudi Arabia this week, he replied: “It makes no sense. height to say these things if I am before you it is because I have been elected twice by the French people.
Above all, the resignation of the president will in no way change the composition of the National Assembly, which cannot be dissolved before the summer of 2025. At the Elysée, those close to the president insist that Emmanuel’s departure Macron would be useless and provide no answers. Since the elected representatives of the Assembly cannot be removed until the end of June at least, the president must therefore propose a solution that suits them: a new apolitical, technical government, or a political government but which will give guarantees to enough elected officials. Marine Le Pen and her group could be satisfied with a new Prime Minister who would promise them a reform establishing proportional representation in legislative elections and an Immigration law. The equation is complex, but not out of reach for the head of state.
What if that’s not enough? Or if a government is appointed but only lasts a few weeks? Then the president’s legitimacy capital will be greatly impacted, he will be perceived as the source of this endless crisis. If Emmanuel Macron changes his mind and decides to resign, he will then open a sequence that could provide clarity: the new president will be able to claim his victory by universal suffrage and even the deputies will have to take into account the choice of voters to compose a new coalition by integrating the line on which the president will have been elected. Even if this scenario also promises headaches for the next executive, it would have the advantage of kicking the anthill and rebuilding group alliances in the Assembly.
If Emmanuel Macron resigns, it seems rather logical that he waits until the beginning of 2025. The President of the Senate would be responsible for the interim while awaiting the organization of a new presidential election. This must be organized “at least twenty days and at most fifty days after the opening of the vacancy or the declaration of the definitive nature of the impediment”. For example, if he resigns on January 20, on January 1er tour could take place no earlier than February 11. On the other hand, the 2e tour could not take place later than March 11.
16:41 – Jordan Bardella does not call on the president to resign
Jordan Bardella, interviewed this Wednesday on France Inter, said he was “respectful” of the institutions of the Fifth Republic and the institutions. “Emmanuel Macron was elected for a period of two five years and there is no reason as we speak for the President of the Republic to leave.” Remember that Marine Le Pen did not call for her departure, but still suggested that her resignation would be a way out of the crisis facing the country. Le Monde also revealed this Wednesday that the boss of the RN group and leader of the extreme did not pass any instructions to elected officials, each being free to give their feelings about the presence of Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée.
03/12/24 – 12:12 – Jean-Luc Mélenchon calls on Emmanuel Macron to resign
“Since the country did not want to give a majority to Emmanuel Macron’s party, since the National Assembly did not give its confidence to the government he appointed, since there is no majority for adopt your budget, then, […] the president must resign”, wrote the leader of La France insoumise on his blog, in a long comment on the 49.3 used by Michel Barnier and on the motion of censure which will be voted on – barring any surprises – this Wednesday. “We must that the president resigns so that we can vote, that the president resigns because the only sovereign in this country is the people. “Let the president resign because we have to decide between the major options presented to us,” he further pleads. “How many more does Michel Barnier intend to use it before drawing the necessary conclusions and assume personal responsibilities?” he asks?
02/12/24 – 3:50 p.m. – “Macron will never resign”
A minister interviewed by Le Parisienwants to believe that even if the government falls with censorship, the head of state will not give up his apron. “Macron will never resign. He is thinking about the mark he will leave in history. He will appoint a Barnier 2, 3, 4 or 5 government if necessary, will dissolve the Assembly again in September if he necessary. But he will want to be able to say: I am the last bastion of the stability of the institutions,” he anticipates.
28/11/24 – 11:54 – For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, “Macron’s departure is the solution to end the crisis created by him”
In a long text published this Thursday, November 28 on his website, Jean-Luc Mélenchon considers that the resignation of Emmanuel Macron is now inevitable. “A slope has now been taken. In people’s minds not only is Macron’s departure the solution to ending the crisis created by him. But there is also the certainty of seeing the latter reduced to total impotence because he has not no more credit or political influence either in France or in the world”, writes the leader of La France insoumise, who insists: “Barring any further unforeseen events, this slope is irreversible. The disbandment of what remains of the ‘presidential camp’ will therefore continue. ’emphasize. It will make everything worse as it decomposes according to a constant law of this type of situation.” Jean-Luc Mélenchon is delighted that his resignation is now being demanded by voices from the left, from the extreme right, but also from the ranks of the right and the center, with the declarations of De Courson and Copé.