“The voters have sent a strong signal in favor of Europe”, welcomed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, congratulating Emmanuel Macron, re-elected to the French presidency on April 24. “I am happy that we are continuing our good cooperation!”, reacted on Twitter, the German leader. In bad shape in his country, Olaf Scholz could want to rely on his French partner to find a new dynamic. But in this relationship, the leader is called Emmanuel Macron, estimates Hans Stark, adviser for Franco-German relations at Ifri.
L’Express: What is your first reaction to the re-election of Emmanuel Macron?
Hans Stark : Of course, it’s a relief. The polls before the first round gave a very small gap between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The result is much clearer in the second round, it’s a good thing. But everything remains to be done. Starting with the legislative elections: the president must obtain a majority in the National Assembly to govern. And then there was a fracturing of political life in France and a strengthening of the extremes, two worrying trends.
What are these future challenges in the Franco-German relationship?
The Franco-German couple exists only intermittently, because the two countries have divergent interests in several areas. There is therefore no Franco-German executive board leading the “European Union boat” in a calm and continuous way. That said, I think there is an opening for more bilateral cooperation on two subjects that have long been sticking points. First, in the current context dictated by the war in Ukraine, Germany is no longer as strict as before on the European convergence criteria, in particular the question of indebtedness. Of course, France must not want to sign off on the official death of these criteria, because the Germans and others risk turning their backs. But a more flexible application should not cause a stir, because it is absolutely necessary to give a boost to the populations in great precariousness in Europe, who are suffering from the rise in inflation and the increase in oil prices.
Then, Franco-German cooperation on armaments has potential because we must make a real rearmament effort at European level – the Germans more than the French, moreover. It is necessary not only to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, as they fight a battle of Westerners against the Russians, but also to be able to defend other European countries potentially threatened by Putin’s madness. This requires substantial investments and opens up opportunities for a Franco-German partnership on armaments.
Concretely, which projects could be accelerated?
If the Germans will solicit the United States for certain categories of equipment, such as the purchase of the F35, they will also invest in the great European project for the combat aircraft of the future. Scheduled for 2040, it must be started now. It is a very ambitious project, since it includes planes, drones and satellites. An equivalent program for the tanks of the future is also planned and the war in Ukraine shows us how much tanks still matter in the fights. So here are two concrete, costly projects that involve our defense industries, require financial and technological transfers and a rapprochement between our companies.
How do we view Emmanuel Macron across the Rhine?
Emmanuel Macron is not as criticized as in France for his arrogance or the brutality of his reforms. On the contrary, we find that he has set in motion an agenda of reforms that allows France to modernize. On the other hand, he can annoy when he wants to go too fast, push the French positions without waiting for the Germans.
His disruptive side, which brought him to power, is also illustrated in his relations with the European Union and its partners, including the Germans. This earned him a lot of criticism. But Angela Merkel had made it known, before leaving, that of all the French presidents, it was with Emmanuel Macron that she had preferred to work. As for his successor, Olaf Scholz, I did not hear him criticize the French president.
The war in Ukraine has caused unease in Germany, which is highly dependent on Russian energy. Given these political difficulties, could Olaf Scholz be a “ball” for Emmanuel Macron?
Insofar as the Germans are always a little slow to draw, yes. But it’s structural across the Rhine, because with the federal system, it takes time to get everyone around a table and find a consensual position. Emmanuel Macron must take this German specificity into account.
Currently, Scholz’s party, the SPD, is going through a very bad patch because all the certainties on which it had built its foreign policy are collapsing. The SPD even admitted too much compromise vis-à-vis the Russians, for the sake of peace and commercial partnership. The SPD is therefore almost experiencing an identity crisis.
Olaf Scholz began his transformation by announcing a substantial increase in the German defense budget, but we must go faster and further, and above all accept the idea that we must export weapons, in particular to Ukraine. This is contrary to the DNA of the SPD, still very strongly marked by the pacifism of the 1980s, during the time of the former USSR. Even among the Greens, who are by nature pacifists, there is growing support for military aid to Ukraine, because the survival of democracy in Europe is at stake. It is a painful debate in Germany, but which is getting under way.
Scholz is therefore in a vulnerable position. Can Macron take advantage of this to gain the upper hand in the Franco-German relationship?
Yes, but that’s a good thing in my opinion. The Germans had the advantage for too long, Angela Merkel was the eminence grise within the European Union, because of her seniority. She chained four mandates, suddenly she could very strongly influence the decisions. Scholz can’t succeed him right away, he’s only been elected once, and he’s already in trouble. Consequently, the strong man of Europe today is Emmanuel Macron. It is to be hoped that he fulfills this function with modesty.
In Germany, the Greens are an important component of the coalition. Strategic partners for Emmanuel Macron?
Indeed, because in recent days Emmanuel Macron has injected more ecology into his political program. But he is also the man of the nuclear renaissance in France, and there the German Greens do not follow him. They are betting on all renewables, so the German energy choice remains at the antipodes of that of France. But I think the Germans are wrong: getting out of nuclear power for good when Russian gas imports should be reduced as much as possible is a very ideological choice, which more and more Germans find difficult to understand.
What are the areas of friction between Paris and Berlin?
The transatlantic relationship is experiencing a renaissance, following Macron’s harsh criticism of NATO’s brain death. We realize today that, more than ever, the Atlantic alliance is a guarantee of survival, France must accept it and not give the impression of wanting to substitute the EU for NATO.
The European Union must strengthen itself militarily, it is obvious, but at the present time, we must bet on the Biden presidency as support for Europe.
In terms of European defence, there is always competition between Airbus and French companies over who is piloting which project, but this should be surmountable. Generally speaking, compared to the major areas of disagreement in recent years, whether it be the debt, the deficits or Germany’s lack of military commitment in the past, the grounds for disagreement seem to me to be much more limited, being also gave rise to the need to face Russia in the East. It would be a luxury to pay for a discord.