This Sunday, July 7, the ballot boxes confounded the pollsters’ predictions. While almost all projections gave the National Rally (RN) the lead in these early legislative elections, it was ultimately the New Popular Front (NFP) that won the day: some 182 seats, compared to 168 for the presidential majority, and 143 for the party with the flame.
Problem: these results deprive the National Assembly of a clear majority. An unprecedented configuration under the Fifth Republic that plunges France into a dizzying unknown. Which Prime Minister? Which government? Which program? For the professor of law at the Sorbonne, Thomas Clay, the arrival of a fully-fledged government could wait several months, or even a year until the next dissolution, which seems, according to him, inevitable. Interview.
The Express: As predicted by various projections, no clear majority emerged on Sunday evening. Did France really become ungovernable this Sunday evening?
Thomas Clay: I would rather say that we are becoming an adult democracy with groups that talk to each other and develop coalitions. On the institutional level, it is possible. On the political level, given what we witnessed on Sunday, it is much less so. No one seems ready to make the slightest concession. So we will witness in the coming days the learning of concession. It could take a year, until the next dissolution deadline, that is to say June 9, 2025.
Gabriel Attal announced Sunday evening that he would submit his resignation to the President of the Republic this Monday morning. How much time does Emmanuel Macron have to appoint a new prime minister after this resignation?
Until a coalition is found. In the meantime, we will have a government that will only deal with current affairs. Either the current one stays in place, or a technical government replaces it while waiting for an agreement to be found. But I insist on the fact that in both cases, this government will do nothing but deal with current affairs: no Council of Ministers, no appointments, no bills, no French representation in Brussels. Many things will be missing. France would be in a way at a standstill. This is why we can hope that a certain number of leaders will show maturity and that a majority can emerge, at least a program majority. We could imagine a grand coalition in the German, Italian or Belgian style. In short, like in any other adult country.
The major problem in France remains the tripartite division of political life. In any case, this new majority could only be a project majority that would allow the country to hold together for a year while waiting for the next dissolution.
Is a further dissolution in a year inevitable?
It is likely. If there is no political agreement around a solid majority, the National Assembly as it is composed after the second round will be a patchwork and will weaken the country, because it will not be able to project anything. So I can’t see how it could last more than a year. And you know, a year is already a very long time in this type of configuration…
How would a coalition actually work? Who would be appointed Prime Minister, for example?
There would need to be a consensual personality who would be the epicentre of this majority. Today, no one stands out, that’s obvious. Then there are people we don’t necessarily think of but who could be suitable. Pierre Moscovici for example. A social democrat could bring people together.
What options does Emmanuel Macron have at the moment?
He no longer has any options. I could tell you, in passing, that he started Jupiter and ended up René Coty. He no longer has any room for maneuver. He will have to choose a Prime Minister, but in reality he will have one imposed on him. A period of discussions between the parliamentary groups begins today to try to find a Prime Minister. Once they have a name, they will impose it on Emmanuel Macron. On the condition, of course, that this name is acceptable. We cannot imagine a Jean-Luc Mélenchon appointed Prime Minister by Emmanuel Macron.
As regards the appointment of the Prime Minister, the Constitution seems to give the President of the Republic free rein…
Certainly, but there is a political reality behind it. Emmanuel Macron cannot appoint whoever he wants. He must appoint someone he thinks will have a majority in Parliament. Which does not leave much room for maneuver. It is a question of political power relations. The work of the President of the Republic consists of appointing a Prime Minister who will be accepted by the National Assembly.
What is the simplest solution to implement: a German scenario, namely a grand coalition government, or an Italian scenario, with the appointment of a technical government?
The difference is very important: the technical government deals with current affairs. The grand coalition governs and has the support of Parliament. So obviously, the grand coalition is more democratic, but it is very difficult to implement because it implies that the Fifth Republic finally becomes an adult democracy. But in view of what was said on Sunday evening, it is not heading that way.
Let’s say that Emmanuel Macron makes the “most democratic” choice and asks parliamentarians to find a coalition agreement. What happens in the meantime? The ministers would stay in place until an alliance is sealed?
In this case, Emmanuel Macron would refuse the resignation of Gabriel Attal. The ministers would therefore remain in place, but would only be able to manage current affairs and initiated policies. This, while waiting for a new government to be appointed.
And what if no agreement is reached by the autumn, when the budget will have to be voted on?
It should be noted that France operates administratively speaking even in the absence of a majority or a fully-fledged government. The school year will start. Civil servants will be paid well at the end of July, etc. As for the finance law, a mechanism is provided in the event of no budget being voted on in Parliament: one twelfth of the previous budget is reproduced each month. In other words, in January 2025, one twelfth of the 2024 budget will be applied, etc.
If a left-wing coalition were to emerge, would that make it difficult to implement the programme on which the NFP deputies were elected?
It would be impossible. Moreover, when Jean-Luc Mélenchon declares “we will implement the NFP program, the entire program, nothing but the NFP program”, he makes it impossible for him to come to power. He does it on purpose. Because no one outside of NFP can accept this program. Which is why I am not optimistic about the chances of seeing a grand coalition emerge. Furthermore, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his LFI comrades are taking the risk that their allies will join a coalition whose center of gravity would be more in the center.
Regarding the National Rally, can we ostracize a party that won more than 140 seats and brought together 8.7 million French people?
There is indeed a risk. By remaining on the fringes of power, the RN will continue to denounce the fact that it is being prevented from reaching responsibilities, which will open up a boulevard for it for 2027.
Is the repeal of the pension reform really possible this summer? Won’t it leave a legal vacuum pending a new law?
The old regime would apply, but quite honestly, I doubt it would be repealed. First of all, it would be very complicated, and no government would have the latitude to do it. I don’t believe it for a single moment. It was a campaign promise. Then, even if the NFP manages to have a Prime Minister from its ranks appointed to Matignon, the state of public finances will prevent it from doing so. And this unfulfilled promise will be the fuel for the RN.
Can we talk about cohabitation even if a consensual Prime Minister is appointed?
At first glance, from the moment the presidential party does not have a majority to govern and the President of the Republic has a Prime Minister imposed by the coalition in the National Assembly, we can speak of cohabitation. Which will however remain a less harsh cohabitation than it would have been with Jordan Bardella who did not share the same political tradition as Emmanuel Macron.
In recent weeks, there have been many debates on the question of power sharing between a head of state and his cohabitation prime minister. What would happen?
On many issues, both parties need to agree. Appointments, sending troops to Ukraine… as soon as one of the two members of the executive couple blocks, nothing happens. It is the president who decides, but it is the government that finances. So if the government wants to go it alone without the president’s approval, it will be blocked, and the reverse is true.
You were saying earlier that Emmanuel Macron has gone from Jupiter to René Coty, have his powers become residual now that he no longer has a majority in the National Assembly? Does he have as much power as a German or Italian president?
No, he has a little more because not all his acts are subject to countersignature. And he will keep his reserved domain: foreign policy, representation of France abroad, and he keeps control over appointments, over many things. He remains the guardian of the Constitution.
Except that the reserved domain is not a rule written in the Constitution, but invented by Chaban-Delmas…
Yes, but it is a constitutional practice, and I am sure it will be respected.
Very weakened by his first cohabitation, François Mitterrand managed to regain popularity under the cohabitation with Jacques Chirac, by embodying wisdom, a broad vision… Can we imagine that a cohabitation would ultimately benefit Emmanuel Macron?
I don’t think so. And in any case, he can’t run again in 2027. He’s going to put himself back on top and watch French politics happen without him, but that won’t help him. Especially since everyone is angry with him. Including within his camp. Real cohabitation begins now, with Gabriel Attal, president of the Renaissance group in the Assembly, and who will never forgive Emmanuel Macron for having dissolved the National Assembly.
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