Want to get. This is what the life of a president is like, sometimes. At the beginning of June, during the commemorations, Emmanuel Macron did not need to move heaven and earth to satisfy his wish: to review the troops, alone, relieved of the cumbersome presence of the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, and that of the Minister of the Armed Forces. Solemn images, the head of state in majesty. “Express request from the Elysée.”
“He is the head of the armed forces but not a commanding authority,” says a senior officer. After investigation, it is a relapse. “For years” Emmanuel Macron has favored a solitary presence in front of the military. Sometimes power is not shared.
Want to get. Even if it means sitting on the Constitution: a president should not do that. Sunday June 9, at the Elysée. In front of the leaders of the majority, Emmanuel Macron mentions his intention to dissolve. Then he begins a round of the table by giving the floor to Yaël Braun-Pivet. The President of the National Assembly learned a few hours earlier that she was invited to the Elysée, even though she is forgotten “once in two”. But she is not content to be satisfied with being present, she wants a tête-à-tête with the head of state. Because she doesn’t agree with him? Without a doubt. But also because the Constitution requires it, quite simply, via its article 12, which speaks of a “consultation”. Here she is treated barely better than Gaston Monnerville surveyed (not even asked to sit down) by General de Gaulle in 1962: “Mr. President of the Senate, the Constitution requires me to ask your opinion. But your opinion I know. Thank you.” Yaël Braun-Pivet was unable to stay standing.
“The child who only has to want to obtain believes himself to be the owner of the universe”, the belief of Jean-Jacques Rousseau. Or the owner of the institutions, the calendar, the oppositions, it depends. Today, the president can only count on the useful idiots of macronism, these elected officials who no longer think anything but are ready to do anything to chase away lepenism – and it is never a good sign for a president to be reduced to it. to that. Especially since these useful idiots that we try to lure in the name of the country in danger are less and less conciliatory. Saving Macron to sideline the RN is not their priority, above all they want to preserve their future.
The spoiled child is never satisfied
Clearly, he can only count on himself. From Sunday evening, polling day, the head of state warns his ministers, three interventions per week until the elections; he had been absent from the legislative campaign in 2022, this time we will see him morning/noon/evening, the spoiled child is never satisfied, especially when it comes to listening to himself. If only he could print posters with his dream slogan… “Love each other” – the formula is suggested by a strategist of the president. “He imagines that he just needs to arrive to change everything”, “he likes to present himself like a superman”: the acerbic formulas, signed François Bayrou, were then aimed at the “egotocracy” of another president, Nicolas Sarkozy portrayed as the “barbarian child”.
Obviously, Emmanuel Macron has confidence in himself, “he looks at himself too much to see others”, retracts a former friend. This June 9, the results blew up in his face and with them the marbled and youthful face of Jordan Bardella. He had no choice but to see. He took the full measure of the results, he wanted to show that he was not looking away but one of his daily interlocutors still remembers this presidential analysis delivered with a smile a few weeks before the election: “People m ‘love it but they can’t stand the government anymore.’ Amused reply from the visitor: “The French hate us!” “No, they hate you!” How good it is to laugh. How good it is to believe it.
Dissolution ? The result of a quest, begun since the yellow vests, for “democratic breathing”, according to an Elysian advisor. Or depersonalization elevated to an art of living. The problem is not Emmanuel Macron but still and always the institutions, the oppositions… Look at his popularity rating: “It remains quite strong, even very strong among our supporters”, we rejoice at the Elysée. The glass half full. Remember that he had promised to reconnect with young people for his re-election and note that two years later only 5% of 18-34 year olds voted for the majority? The glass is half empty, no need to insist.
We knew Emmanuel Macron the actor, here he is a screenwriter. But not master of the game. Of course, he will have tried to attract under the presidential banner, before the closing of the submission of candidacies on June 16 at 6 p.m., some good will; obviously he will be inclined, the day after the first round, when everyone chooses their camp, to find a divide that is favorable to them. But the day after July 7, when the new National Assembly will have been appointed, several scenarios may arise.
The most unfavorable? The National Rally and its possible allies hold the absolute majority. In this case, the president will “respect the institutions”, say those close to him (who obviously cannot say anything else at this stage, at the risk of transforming the vote into a referendum for or against Macron). In theory, he retains the power to choose the Prime Minister from the ranks of the majority party. But we remember that during the cohabitations, the choice of François Mitterrand was constrained: in 1986, he pretended to hesitate between Jacques Chirac, Jacques Chaban-Delmas and Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, to whom emissaries were sent, but the The decision to name the first quickly became clear. In 1993, the socialist had no other freedom than to call Edouard Balladur, whom his party president had designated to go to Matignon. In 1997, with Jacques Chirac, the direction was just as obvious: Lionel Jospin, first secretary of the PS who came first, became, the next morning, head of government.
Second scenario: the presidential majority escapes, or better, increases to become absolute. Emmanuel Macron becomes the Machiavelli of modern times. Or a simple captain in bad weather if the cabotage organized as best he can since 2022 continues.
Third scenario: we must build an understanding with the forces of the “republican arc” presenting themselves under their own banners (LR, PS, etc.) and which would go beyond the extreme right. “This coalition, impossible over time, can be provoked through the ballot boxes”, we want to believe at the Elysée. But a new institutional situation would disrupt these scenarios. At the start of the next legislature, a premium will be given to small groups likely to vote, if necessary, on a motion of censure: they will in fact be in a strong position to win their case and see their whims satisfied since the president will not be able to dissolve for a year.
Finished playing. As time went on, the president believed he was authorized to do as he pleased. Neither God nor master, freedom ends where cynicism begins. Because it was to deliberately place the examination of the bill on the end of life in the middle of the European campaign, for sole electoral purposes, with the hope of sending a wink to the left and, at the same time time to embarrass François-Xavier Bellamy, who had been overtaken by his conservative positions during the 2019 European elections. Now, the text has been swept away by the dissolution, all that remains is the impression of an immense deception.
Emmanuel Macron and the meaning of the moment, tragedy in several acts. Often, in private, he questions: “How do you create public opinion in a campaign?” He has his own little idea, repeated and rehashed: “You have to seize your moment.” This is what he did in 2017 by reaching out to Whirlpool employees, what he believed he was doing by changing government last January and installing in Matignon the one who was to wring Bardella’s neck during the European. This is also what he is now beginning with this dissolution, which one of his close friends explains would have been suffered if it had followed censorship at the time of the budget, next fall. The president, finally, seized his moment. But the consequences, even more than in previous times, appear uncertain. Time to learn that wanting doesn’t always get you?
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