The space company SpaceX has managed to build an unprecedented satellite network in five years. An estimated two-thirds of the satellites orbiting the Earth belong to the company’s Starlink constellation.
There are currently around 7,000 Starlink satellites in orbit. SpaceX’s goal is to increase the number of satellites to a few tens of thousands in the next few years, which would make the company the world’s largest internet connection broker.
The change is already significant with the current number of satellites, says the professor of technology application Marko Höyhtä From the National Defense University.
– Fifteen years ago, when it was said that low-orbit satellite systems would provide services to ordinary citizens, the old satellite technology gamblers laughed out such ideas; it has been tried and we always end up in trouble, Höyhtä recalls.
SpaceX has not gone bankrupt. Instead, it has become one of the world’s most valuable privately held companies.
Anyone can get a Starlink terminal and a monthly paid internet connection for a few hundred euros. The benefits are significant, especially in remote areas where traditional networks cannot reach.
Another place where satellite connections are important is on the battlefield.
Ukraine’s digital infrastructure relies on Starlink
The Russian attack had lasted two days when the Ukrainian government requested SpaceX to activate Starlink connections over Ukraine. The Russian cyber attack had broken the modems of Viasat, the company that provides satellite connections to the Ukrainian administration in Europe, and traditional attacks had damaged terrestrial communication connections.
The first container of Starlink terminals arrived in Ukraine in a couple of days. Since then, the Ukrainian administration and armed forces have trusted the services of the American company. With the help of Starlink, the Ukrainian army controls its drones and communicates troop movements.
Höyhtä reminds us that Ukraine is not the first conflict zone where satellite technology has taken on a significant role. The GPS positioning system and commercial communication satellites were already used during the Persian Gulf War in the 1990s.
– In practice, ever since satellites have been shot into the sky, it has been thought about how they can be used militarily, Höyhtä points out.
In Ukraine, the whole society relies on satellite connections. Starlink terminals can be found in hospitals, schools and government buildings.
In practice, the digital infrastructure of the entire country relies on one card. And that card is in one man’s hand.
Musk’s unwavering support lasted half a year
In the early months of the war in Ukraine, SpaceX and its founder and main owner Elon Musk received a lot of praise from Western countries. SpaceX had acted quickly and the company offered free satellite connections to Ukraine.
As the war dragged on, Musk’s attitude towards supporting Ukraine began to change. He began repeating views that mirror Russia’s narratives. In October 2022, half a year after the Russian attack, Musk announced that SpaceX will not continue to finance services to Ukraine.
In the end, the US Department of Defense took Ukraine’s Starlink connections for payment.
However, SpaceX retained the right to decide how its services are used in Ukraine. In February 2023 SpaceX announcedthat it intends to prevent the use of its services to carry out drone strikes. According to the company, its service should not have been used as part of a weapon system.
SpaceX has also restricted Starlink connections in Russian-occupied territories. This has affected the coordination of Ukrainian counterattacks.
A biography of Musk published last year revealed that Musk refused to activate Starlink service over Crimea, preventing Ukrainian forces from striking the Sevastopol naval base. Musk justified his decision by saying that the strike would have escalated the fighting.
Last month the economic newspaper The Wall Street Journal reports that Musk has regularly discussed the Russian president Vladimir Putin with after Russia invaded Ukraine.
SpaceX follows the US line, whatever that is
Researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Markus Holmgren points out that SpaceX has so far followed the strategic line of the United States very closely, also in Ukraine.
– The United States has set certain restrictions on how their military aid can be used in Ukraine. Restrictions, for example, regarding which performance can be used inside the sectors taken over by Russia, says Holmgren.
SpaceX has stayed within these limits.
According to Holmgren, Musk’s speeches and rhetoric also fit the strategic line of the United States.
– At the same time, they have also hidden the line itself from view, he adds.
What that line will be like Donald Trump’s during the presidency, remains to be seen. Musk, who positioned himself as a supporter of Trump and a major financier in the election campaign, has in any case tied himself and his company to the US administration and its line.
This could have implications for SpaceX’s geopolitical position.
– With his active and flamboyant political participation, Musk has connected SpaceX more and more tightly to the politics of the United States in the eyes of many countries’ citizens, companies and government actors, and in that sense has certainly caused consideration of whether one wants to tie one’s own capabilities to the politicized system of the United States, says Holmgren.
Taiwan has already drawn its own conclusions
Consideration has already been done in several countries. Taiwan, which is in a geopolitically critical situation, has drawn its own conclusions about the situation in Ukraine, and the country is building its own network of communication satellites.
This has certainly been influenced by the fact that Musk has compared Taiwan’s position in relation to China to Hawaii, which is one of the US states.
Marko Höyhtä, professor of technology application at the National Defense University, says that in addition to Taiwan, both China and Europe have their own plans for satellite constellations. There are a handful of challengers on the commercial side.
It’s not an easy job. Starlink’s head start is significant, and not all countries’ own satellites can fit into the lower orbits.
Currently, SpaceX’s position in space operations is unshakable. The company is one of the most important contractors in the United States. of the New York Times according to SpaceX has contracts with the US government worth more than 15 billion dollars.
If a role opens up for Musk in the Trump administration, this sum will certainly swell.