Since 2022, Elisabeth Borne has been a deputy for the 6th constituency of Calvados. For these early legislative elections in 2024, what are her chances of being re-elected?
After the transfer of power to Matignon on January 9, Elisabeth Borne returned to her role as deputy for Calvados and resumed her seat in the National Assembly, which was occupied by her deputy Freddy Sertin. Following the holding of early legislative elections on June 30 and July 7, Elisabeth Borne announced that she would represent herself in the 6th constituency of Calvados.
“When I was a candidate in the legislative elections, it was important to me to be an elected official who listened to your concerns. In June 2022, I made a promise to you to remain at your service, which I have made when I was Prime Minister (…) Aware of the challenges of our constituency, I am fully determined to continue my commitment to the service of our territory, I will be a candidate in the next legislative elections. she announced in a press release on June 10.
During her campaign, Elisabeth Borne does not hesitate to target her opponents and in particular the NFP and the RN which she considers “unrealistic”, as she declared on France Blue Normandy. “We must propose credible, concrete, rapid solutions. When we promise a dream, it always ends in a nightmare,” she said.
In the Vire-Evrecy constituency, Elisabeth Borne has six opponents. She will face Nicolas Calbrix (RN), Noé Gauchard (NFP), Esteline Caillemer (Reconquête), Lynda Lahalle (Republican Right), Pascale Georget (LO), Bérangère Lareynie (NPA) and Philippe Ambourg (Debout la France). During the 2022 legislative elections, the former head of government totaled 52.46% of the votes cast against the Nupes candidate, Noé Gauchard. In the first round, she came in first position with 34.3% of the votes cast.
What result for Elisabeth Borne in the legislative elections?
If his left-wing opponent tries to take his revenge and defends an increase in wages or even the repeal of the pension reform, the RN candidate could also prove formidable. Nicolas Calbrix grew up in Rouen and is, at 39, an industrial company executive. He was a candidate for the 2020 regional elections with the Debout la France party. His confrontation with Elisabeth Borne is according to him “a specific and symbolic issue”, reported The Free Channel.
If the presidential majority seemed to be well established in the territory, Elisabeth Borne having taken over from the outgoing LREM deputy, Alain Tourret, the results of the European elections seem to indicate a certain rise of the RN. Jordan Bardella’s list came well ahead with 34% of the votes in the constituency.
Furthermoreaccording to national polls, the RN remains at the top of voting intentions for the early legislative elections, with a score At-above the 30% mark. The IFOP survey for LCI dated June 17 credits it, for example, by 33% compared to 28% for the left-wing coalition and 18% for the presidential majority. These estimates remain national, and do not give the local political balance of power. However, they highlight that the candidates of the majority leave overall with less chance of winning than those of the two other major political forces in this election.