A meme has been propagating for a few days on Ukrainian social networks. On the one hand, a scene showing individuals competing in a general stampede and subtitles “Ukrainians when they debate internal policy”; On the other, an image of disciplined participants sitting around a meeting table, entitled “The Ukrainians when Trump insults Zelensky”. United against adversity, the latter did not appreciate the aggressive statements of Donald Trump, who called their “dictator without elections” at all, exhorting him to “act quickly if he does not wish to lose his country”. This threat is accompanied by a surprising statement: according to the American president, Ukraine “is expected to be $ 500 billion” in Washington as a return on investment, even if, in reality, the United States has released $ 67 billion in financial aid and 31 billion financial assistance, according to the Kiel Institute.
The Ukrainians, Volodymyr Zelensky in mind, perceive in these words the influence of the Kremlin and its disinformation machine. The day before, Donald Trump resumed the word for word the rhetoric of Moscow by claiming elections in Ukraine, echoing the Russian argument that no peace agreement is possible with Zelensky, deemed “illegitimate” since the expiration of his mandate in May 2024. Trump even said that Zelensky only benefited from 4 % 63 %. The Ukrainian president returned the ball to his counterpart on February 23: “If you really need to leave my post, I am ready,” he launched during a press conference in kyiv, offering to exchange his departure for a membership of Ukraine at NATO.
Elections, the impossible equation
Trump’s animosity with regard to Zelensky dates back to 2019, when Trump ended up under a procedure ofimpreach After his pressures on Zelensky. During a telephone call, the American president conditioned military aid of $ 400 million at the opening of an investigation into the activities of Joe Biden’s son in Ukraine.
Between Washington and kyiv, the rupture seems to be consumed. “Zelensky must be understood that we understand that we are entering a new reality. The United States is no longer a strategic partner for Ukraine, neither military, economic, nor political levels,” deplores kyiv, the political scientist Volodyr Fessenko. “A ceasefire remains possible, but Zelensky will not sign a peace agreement limiting Ukrainian sovereignty,” he continues.
Like their president, 60 % of Ukrainians say they are opposed to elections during the war. In addition to being prohibited during martial law, the organization of a ballot would come up against insurmountable logistical obstacles, under clouds of Russian missiles. To this is added the fact that a third of the population had to leave their home: more than 7 million Ukrainians fled the country and 4.5 million were moved inside. With, in addition, 18.5 % of the territory under Russian occupation, the prospect of elections seems completely unrealistic.
“How to organize the vote of the hundreds of thousands of soldiers? And who will monitor the vote? I can hardly see international observers in Pokrovsk,” wonders Olena Haloushka, co -founder of the anti -corruption action center. Like this city of Donbass shaved by the Russians, certain localities no longer even have an intact building that can accommodate the ballot boxes. The director of the electoral commission also said that Ukraine remained too vulnerable to Russian interference to launch an online or correspondence election.
Even in the event of a truce, the organization of elections would be dangerous for kyiv. “There would be no guarantee that the territory would not be attacked after the lifting of martial law, when the borders would open, the men would be allowed to leave the country, the army would be raised. Russia would attack again, with the aim of taking kyiv, while we would be in the middle of the electoral campaign,” warns the Ukrainian political scientist Mykola Davidiouk.
Former President Petro Poroshenkowho announced his candidacy for the next presidential election last April, held in ambush. Despite his overwhelming defeat against Zelensky in 2019 and strong unpopularity, the “King of Chocolate” retains a hard core of faithful supporters. Leader of the main opposition force with 27 seats out of 450 at the rada, he cultivates a presidential posture and develops parallel diplomacy as during his recent visit to Washington where he met the National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
More and more criticized Zelensky
On the eve of the telephone exchange between Putin and Trump, on February 12, Zelensky undoubtedly made a mistake by imposing sanctions against Poroshenko, accused of threatening national security. Perceived as political, these measures arouse criticism from the opposition and civil society, which denounce an “extrajudicial procedure”. The ex-president does not even represent the main electoral threat to Zelensky. The real surprise could come from Valeri Zaloujny, the former commander-in-chief appointed last year ambassador to the United Kingdom after his dismissal. The last surveys grant him 27 %of the voting intentions, ahead of Zelensky at 16 %, while Poroshenko stagnates at 7 %.
Because if its popularity culminated at the start of the invasion, the grievances accumulate against Zelensky. His management of military affairs, in particular, arouses controversy, as illustrated by the sidelining of Lieutenant General Serhi Naïev. This joint forces commander since 2020 was relegated to the command of a simple tactical group in one of the most dangerous areas of Donbass after having expressed public criticism. This type of treatment is also applied to dissident votes from civil society. Thus, Vitaly Shabunin, director of the anti -corruption action center and engaged in the army since 2022, was transferred in this month of February from kyiv to Kharkiv, near the front line, after his many charges against the executive.
The line to be held is complex, for opponents. “It is particularly perilous to criticize the government during a large -scale invasion because Russian propaganda exploits the slightest information against us, says activist Olena Haloushka. The Russian strategy seeks to erase the distinction between Ukraine and Russia, to present two authoritarian regimes in conflict. democracy, to continue the fight against anti -corruption. “
The Romanian previous of a candidate for the presidential election powered by Tiktok with the support of worried Russia, but the emergence of a new Prorusse candidate seems unlikely. “Moscow can nevertheless continue to divide Ukrainian society on issues of social justice, mobilization in the army, and especially on the dilemma between territorial reconquest and negotiations with Moscow”, deciphers Volodymyr Solovian, director of the analysis group on hybrid threats. This strategy is mainly deployed via the Telegram application, which now informs 70 to 80 % of Ukrainians, faced with a discredited television, which only talks about war, with the government’s point of view. Kremlin’s Telegram channels in Ukraine hammer that kyiv should have accepted Kremlin’s conditions during Istanbul negotiations in March 2022 to avoid two years of unnecessary deaths. A rhetoric now taken up by Trump, who has become the Kremlin megaphone.
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