The votes were only half counted as the world’s media was already pumping out sensational headlines like “historic earthquake in Northern Ireland.” It is true that Sinn Fein’s victory in the local elections in Northern Ireland is impressive. The nationalist party and former political branch of the paramilitaries of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which notably advocates the reunification of Ireland, finds itself for the first time in the history of the country at the head of the votes cast and seats in the assembly of Stormont, the Parliament of Belfast. With 29% of the votes, Sinn Fein is ahead of the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party, at only 21.3%). And won 27 seats out of 90 against 25 for the DUP, which gave it the title of first political force in Northern Ireland. This performance is, indeed, historic and opens the way to the idea of a possible reunification of Ireland, one hundred years after its partition and the creation of Northern Ireland attached to the United Kingdom in 1921.
But this victory is however above all symbolic. For several reasons.
First of all, Sinn Fein won no more seats than in the last local elections in 2017. It was the DUP that lost some. This has suffered from the post-Brexit situation. The DUP, so far in power, has always refused the Brexit protocol negotiated by London and which imposes binding customs controls on Northern Ireland. But the alternative, the return of a border between the two Irelands, one belonging to the United Kingdom and the other to the European Union, is however rejected both by the EU and by London for fear of trigger disorders that would bring back bad memories. It was therefore necessary to agree on the absence of a border between the two Ireland and therefore, in return, on a control of the goods. And so, ultimately, on a “border” between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. What offend unionists who have the impression of being treated differently from the rest of the country.
The idea of reunification will have to continue to make its way
If it seems logical that the post of Prime Minister should go to Sinn Fein and its leader, Michelle O’Neill, the DUP can however refuse to share power with this party until the question of protocol is settled, preventing thus the formation of an executive power for many months.
As for the idea of reunification, the question is still a taboo in Northern Ireland, and it will have to continue to make its way into people’s minds before Sinn Fein can impose a referendum on the subject, and even consider winning it. As Michelle O’Neil herself said on Sunday, after the results were made official, her priority is to govern for a better quality of life for Northern Irish people: “Today marks a new era in which we we will be able to reimagine our relationships in our society on the basis of social justice and equality, beyond questions of religion and political affiliation.”
The victory of Sinn Fein and the decline of the DUP should not make us forget either that Unionism still predominates in Northern Ireland. If we add the votes for the three unionist parties (DUP, Ulster Unionist Party and Traditional Unionist Voice), they represent 40.1% of the votes cast. Moreover, these local elections showed the strong breakthrough of the Centrist Alliance (Alliance Party) which is the third political force in the country with 13.5% of the vote and 17 seats in the Stormont parliament. But the centrists are neither unionists nor nationalists.
With a relatively low turnout of around 63%, these local elections certainly add spice to the UK’s post-Brexit political history but are not yet a major turning point.