(Finance) – Regardless of the results of April 24, “an increase in French interest rates is to be expected” in the medium term, but the time horizon and the extent of this increase could vary. “Macron’s election should initially lead to a tightening of spreads and then to an increase in French interest rates supported by the pro-growth policy of the current president and by a more optimistic market sentiment “- he explains Kevin Thozet, member of Carmignac’s Investment Committeecommenting on the impact of the French presidential elections on the markets -.
There victory of Le Pen – adds the analyst – “instead it would lead to an increase in ratesbut there could also be a shock in terms of confidence and an increase in deficits, due to greater uncertainty “.
On the currency markets, more than growth dynamics, it will be Le Pen’s wish for a “Europe of Nations”, in contrast to the trend towards greater federalism, that will determine the short-term trajectory of the euro.
As for the stock markets – explains Thozet – generally political elections are not the main driver of returns, which tend to be largely driven by factors globally (be it interest rates and inflation dynamics, the impact of the expected Chinese stimulus, the decline in economic growth, etc.) unlisted assets, although there is a tendency to associate Macron with the relaunch of private equity in France, Le Pen could also favor the development of new start-ups, as it intends to implement tax relief for young workers and tax exemptions for young workers. young entrepreneurs under 30.
Obviously – concludes the analyst – “the result of the second round of the presidential elections is important, but the legislative elections of 12 and 19 June will be equally decisive for the future of the country and, consequently, of Europe. Therefore, after April 24, investors should quickly turn their attention to the “third round” of the French presidential elections. “
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