Election fraud in Israel – comeback for Netanyahu?

The far right looks set to gain record support when Israel goes to the polls, and could form a government headed by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

If the right-wing bloc wins, convicted terror ultranationalist Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has said police should shoot Palestinian demonstrators, could become security minister.

Behind bulletproof glass in the so-called Bibi bus, named after Benjamin Netanyahu’s nickname, the former prime minister has traveled around with his campaign ahead of Tuesday’s parliamentary elections.

A single seat in the 120-member Knesset parliament stands between him and a return to power in Israel – and campaigning has continued to the last despite an otherwise rather sleepy election campaign. It is the fifth time in less than four years that Israel has gone to the polls, and the outcome is far from certain.

The only thing that is clear in the opinion polls is that the extreme right is expected to attract a record number of voters. At the front is the controversial Knesset member Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the nationalist party Otzma Yehudit (in Swedish roughly “Jewish power”). Among other things, he has been convicted of supporting a terrorist organization and saying that Arab citizens who are not “loyal” to Israel should be deported.

“Waving weapons”

According to the Times of Israel, Religious Zionism, the party group with which Otzma Yehudit is going to the election, looks set to become the country’s third largest, and the second largest party in Netanyahu’s promised coalition. Netanyahu has promised Ben-Gvir a ministerial post if he wins. He himself says that he demands to become minister with responsibility for public security, which means, among other things, responsibility for the country’s police, whom he has repeatedly called on to shoot Palestinian demonstrators.

– He himself has regularly appeared armed and brandishing weapons at demonstrations, says Anders Persson, Israel expert and political scientist at Linnaeus University.

Can seek cooperation

In addition to the possibility of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition possibly winning 61 of the 120 parliamentary seats, which some opinion polls have pointed towards, the prime ministership could again be his if one of the smaller opposition parties leaves the Knesset. Four parties, two Arab and two left-wing parties, have been close to or just below the barrier of 3.25 percent before the election.

– If one of the parties falls behind, Netanyahu is almost guaranteed victory, says Anders Persson.

The election was triggered after the current government, which came to power in June 2021 with a motley crew of eight parties, fell apart this summer. Unlike that coalition, Netanyahu has a united bloc of right-wing parties behind him. But there is reason to believe that he will nevertheless extend a hand to opposition parties if he wins. Forming a government with the ultra-right to which Ben-Gvir belongs will likely mean foreign policy problems.

Deteriorated relationships

Representatives of the US government have already warned that the cooperation would worsen relations between the two allied states. Even the United Arab Emirates, which normalized relations with Israel under the so-called Abraham Agreement in 2020, has flagged that extremists in government positions could damage the newfound friendship.

– Netanyahu will probably seek a broader coalition to reduce their influence, but it is not certain that he will succeed, says Persson.

Facts

Israeli politics

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