Do you know who Werner Hoyer is? To say that the president of the European Investment Bank (BEI) is not well known to the general public is an understatement. His successor, on the other hand, will undoubtedly make more noise. He must be appointed this Friday or Saturday by a majority vote of the 27 finance ministers of the European Union, gathered in Santiago de Compostela for an informal meeting. And if this choice should not be made public immediately, it will put an end to much-publicized negotiations for such a discreet position.
Founded in 1958, the EIB is the financial arm of the European Union. It raises money on the capital markets and lends it to the private and public sectors to finance projects in infrastructure, innovation, SMEs, and above all the fight against climate change. Renewable energies, green industry, water sanitation… In 2022, 58% of EIB investments aimed at protecting the environment, or 36.5 billion euros. “His presidency is a key position, which gives access to important levers and arouses a lot of discussion and desire,” explains to L’Express Sylvain Kahn, professor at Sciences Po. “What is unusual is that we have two very political candidates here: Margrethe Vestager, a European Commissioner and former minister, and Nadia Calviño, a minister.”
The first, Danish, is one of the best-known faces in Brussels. Indestructible Commissioner for Competition, Margrethe Vestager has been attacking global giants since 2014 and distinguished herself by imposing a record fine on Google (since surpassed) of 4.3 billion euros. The second, Spanish, is less famous. Minister of the Economy and number 2 in the government of Pedro Sanchez, Nadia Calviño is a senior civil servant, but has worked for a long time for the European Union. For several weeks, the two candidates have been fighting to obtain the support of France, which has not yet revealed its choice.
Atom of Discord
The French executive is determined to charge dearly for its support. He notably dealt with nuclear power, a divisive subject if ever there was one, the condition sine qua non to his support. “The management of [la BEI] is being renewed, and we are very keen that the next director general commits to supporting nuclear power”, declared the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Mairequestioned last July in a parliamentary committee on the financing of new reactors.
Today, the EIB can only finance existing reactors, while France is seeking funds to build its next six EPRs, colossal projects which will cost more than 50 billion euros according to EDF. However, Margrethe Vestager is a convinced anti-nuclear. His country, Denmark, does not use the atom and is one of those, with Germany and Austria, which opposed nuclear power being considered by the European Union as a green energy. No matter, she suddenly declares herself “pragmatic”. “In Denmark, sometimes our electricity imported from Sweden comes from nuclear power plants!” she admitted a few days ago to Echoes. “However, I would like to make it clear that the EIB cannot be asked to guess at requests which have not been politically approved.” In other words, if the European Parliament or the Council of the EU authorizes the financing of nuclear power, then the EIB will follow this decision.
Nadia Calviño is also not a big defender of the atom, which represents around 22% of electricity production in Spain. His government even plans to close the nuclear fleet by 2035, in the hope of reaching all-renewable power in 2050. But like its rival, she now qualifies her remarks, specifying at the beginning of September that it would comply with “everything determined by EU regulations”. One everywhere, ball in the center.
Anti-Vestager sentiment?
So what will tip the scales? “Basically, they don’t have a very different program from the EIB. It’s more a question of profile,” observes Sylvain Kahn. And the profile of Margrethe Vestager annoys. However, it would have been logical for Emmanuel Macron – the unofficial decision-maker – to choose it, since they belong to the same European political group, Renew. But as the president of this group (and shadow advisor at the Elysée), Stéphane Séjourné, summed up, “Renew is not Paris”.
Emmanuel Macron and Margrethe Vestager may be liberal centrists, but they do not share the same vision of Europe. Where the French president pleads for “European sovereignty” and “strategic autonomy” vis-à-vis the United States, the Commissioner defends openness to free trade and global competition. Thus, when Joe Biden adopted the Inflation Reduction Act, this major subsidy plan for the American green industry, raising fears of a flight of European companies to the United States, Emmanuel Macron wanted to reciprocate with a sovereignty fund which would protect the industry of the Old Continent. Margrethe Vestager opposed it: she saw it as a “race for subsidies” which would degenerate into a “trade war” with America.
In 2019, already, it had prevented the creation of a European railway giant by opposing the merger of the French Alstom and the German Siemens, defended by the Elysée. Certainly, the project, which aimed to compete with China and the United States, did not arouse overwhelming enthusiasm in France, but Margrethe Vestager’s decision had been a public disavowal for Emmanuel Macron. Bruno Le Maire, for his part, spoke of an “economic error” coupled with a “political mistake”. These tensions came to a head last July, with the Fiona Scott Morton saga. The American economist had been personally chosen by Margrethe Vestager to join the Directorate General for Competition at the Commission, and Paris had led the revolt against this appointment. The nationality of the person concerned and the suspicion of conflict of interest linked to the consulting missions she had carried out for Amazon or Apple had raised an outcry, including in the European Parliament and in Margrethe Vestager’s own camp. “This affair weakened his candidacy for the EIB, because it was presented as a sign of his disconnection with the vision of European actors and citizens,” says Sylvain Kahn. So many reasons why Emmanuel Macron is leaning, for the moment, according to Politicotowards Nadia Calviño, who is closer to her conception of Europe… and whose nomination would be a snub for Margrethe Vestager.
The great future of the EIB
If this duel is so commented on, it is also because the role of the EIB will gain in influence in the coming years. The sectors in which it operates have never been so important: the energy transition, which will require titanic investments and determine the competitiveness of the entire Europe, but also digital technology, defense and the reconstruction of Ukraine. While a joint loan has already been launched to revive the post-Covid economy and the debt of several countries is exploding, many eyes in Brussels are turning to the EIB to finance these projects, and are pleading for greater financing. risks in granting loans. A small revolution for this organization known for its prudence and very attached to its AAA rating by the rating agencies.
To convince, Margrethe Vestager proposes internal reforms. “The EIB is called upon to play a bigger role, it must become faster and address new types of risks,” she suggested to Echoes, pointing to deeptech and the use of artificial intelligence in health as areas in which she would like Europe to invest. But Nadia Calviño also subscribes to this approach. Difficult, therefore, to stand out… “In the history of European construction, when there are candidates with strong personalities who oppose each other, the Member States often end up agreeing on a third”, recalls Sylvain Khan. Less influential, the Swede Thomas Östros, the Polish Teresa Czerwińska and the Italian Daniele Franco are also candidates and could well serve as a consensus.