(Finance) – The second quarter of 2023 shows clear signs of a slowdown in activity. The critical issues affecting some large European economies and the difficulties in bringing inflation back to values closer to the monetary policy objectives are leading to less dynamism in our economy.
This was noted by Congiuntura Confcommercio in June, emphasizing that the indicators that bear witness to this range from the progressive slowdown in industrial activity (four consecutive months of economic downturn) to the emergence of a less favorable evolution of the demand for consumption up to the slowdown in the recovery of tourist presences, both of Italians and foreigners (approximately -2% compared to 2019 in the first four months of 2023 ).
The indicators on the sentiment of households and businesses – we read – show some sagging in the month of May, confirming that the slowdown could also continue in the coming months. In this context, only the labor market continues to show elements of vivacity with an increase in employed persons in April over March equal to 48 thousand units (+390 thousand in the annual comparison). The continuation of these favorable dynamics would indicate that economic operators consider the current phase of near-stagnation to be temporary. In our opinion, whether or not to untie these knots between slowdown and uncertainty about the future will depend on the speed of inflationary tensions easing.
Also in May, consumption, measured using the CCI metric, recorded a reduction of 0.2% on an annual basis. The figure is the synthesis of a marked and widespread slowdown in the demand for goods (-1.2%) and a growth in consumption for the component relating to services (+2.6%), although the first signs of less dynamism are emerging for this aggregate as well. With regard to goods, only the demand for cars shows important signs of recovery (+11.5% on a trend basis). The favorable dynamics recorded since the end of last year have only mitigated the difficulties of a sector which, in the pre-pandemic comparison, still shows a significant gap in terms of volumes. Among other goods, once again in May the dynamics of food consumption (-4.3% trend), electricity (-3.6%) and clothing (-2.0%) were confirmed.
According to our estimates – continues the note – GDP in June would have marginally decreased (-0.1%) compared to May, with growth of 1.3% on an annual basis. In the second quarter as a whole, growth would amount to 0.2% in quarterly terms, a figure determined by the positive legacy left by the first quarter of the year, and at 1.1% compared to the same period of 2022.