(Finance) – “At a certain point of the year, at analyses economical it must necessarily be accompanied by an examination of the quantitative evidence through simple arithmetic. In the metric corrected for calendar days, the first nine months of 2024 show a GDP trend of +0.4%. It wouldn’t be dissimilar, according to ours estimatesthe trend of the last quarter, with November showing economic growth of a tenth of a point and a trend of +0.5%. Therefore, adding two tenths due to the greater number of working days, the end of 2024 would be placed at +0.6%far from the 1% objective, the achievement of which would now be conditioned by a final acceleration which is unlikely, at least according to the historical series of economic variations of the last twenty years”. This is highlighted Confcommercio in his analysis on economic situation of Italy.
“Compared to last month, all the signs of weakness already identified, with the confirmation, according to the provisional estimate for September, of a halt in employment growth – the analysis continues -. Furthermore, the production industrial continues to struggle and tourist presences, also assessed in a provisional formulation in this case, would be characterized, in September, by a moderately negative variation compared to the same month of 2023, with the Italian component still in sharp decline (around -4%).
“The panorama of the consumptionthe weak link in an economic situation that has been going on for too many months. In October we estimate forICC (Confcommercio Consumption Indicator) a negative change of half a point in the seasonally adjusted metric and a modest growth (+0.4%) for the raw trend, after a reduction in September. Of course, there is no shortage of favorable ideas: purchases and consumption of communications and personal care, structural attractors of family spending, are growing. Spending on recreational and cultural services and consumer electronics was good, again in October, while the setback for consumption outside the home benefits domestic nutrition”, underlined Confcommercio.
“But, overall, starting from the new reduction of expense For clothing And footwear and the continuing difficulties ofautomotivesignificant impulses of liveliness are missing. Expectations for consumption in December remain well oriented, but only on the basis of a residual hope that sooner or later higher real incomes will transform into higher consumption. The next few days, at the turn of the Black Fridaythey will say whether these expectations are well founded.”
“The rise, according to our estimates, of theinflation on an annual basis in November (and presumably December) above 1% is the result of a base effect, perfectly in line with forecasts and does not cause concern”, concludes Confcommercio.