In Venezuela, which had to delete a total of 11 zeros from its currency after entering the hyper-inflation process with monthly inflation exceeding the 50 percent threshold in November 2017, although there have been positive developments in economic indicators in recent months, experts note that it takes many years to repair the damage caused by the crisis.
The United Nations Economic Community of Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has announced its average annual growth expectation for Venezuela as 5 percent. If the South American country, whose economy has shrunk by approximately 77 percent since 2013, achieves a growth average of 5 percent in the coming years, it will take thirty years for production to return to 2013 levels.
There are also serious differences in the 2022 growth expectation in Venezuela, where economic data has not been disclosed by the official authorities for many years. For example, while the growth expectation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Venezuela is 1.5 percent; Credit Suisse, the bank and finance company in Switzerland, is 20 percent. The growth expectation of Focus Economics and Ecoanalitica, which is among the reliable institutions in Venezuela, Venezuela Financial Observatory (OVF) and Andres Bello Catholic University (UCAB), this year is 8 percent. It ranges from 10 to 10.
The time needed for economic recovery varies inversely with the growth rate.
“Oil production decreased 75 percent in 9 years”
One of the most clear indications of the extent of the crisis that has deepened since President Nicolas Maduro came to power in 2013 is that in the last seven years, one out of every 5 Venezuelans had to leave their country because they could not meet their essential needs.
However, data such as inflation falling to single digits since last September, the end of hyperinflation in the first weeks of this year, the transfer of the first place in the inflation league to 2022 and the 7.8 percent growth rate in the first quarter after 8 years, according to independent organizations, show that the economic situation in the oil country has improved. is showing.
Experts report that the increase in energy prices with the Ukraine crisis, the increase in oil production by Venezuela through bilateral agreements, and the positive return of the government’s steps to improve relations with the countries that imposed sanctions, especially the United States, were effective in this recovery.
In Venezuela, whose economy was approximately 320 billion dollars in 2013, this amount is calculated as approximately 70 billion dollars today.
Experts note that the country, which has the richest oil reserves in the world, can produce approximately 750 thousand barrels of oil per day today and that this amount needs time, budget and political stability to reach the level of 3 million barrels 9 years ago.