France is lifting a number of health measures this Wednesday, February 16, including standing concerts again authorized, as well as consumption at the counter in bars and cafes, or the reopening of nightclubs closed since December 10.
The latest measures suggest that normal life is slowly returning to normal and that the worst of the Covid-19 epidemic is behind us. The figures are quite encouraging. According to Public health Franceon February 15, there were 142,253 new daily cases, a drop of about 40% in one week.
Same to the hospital. Because even if the occupancy rates vary from one region to another, this Monday, February 14, there were 2,102 new hospitalizations, that is to say 25% less in one week. Another proof of the decline of the epidemic: the drop in R0, namely the average number of people that a positive case will infect. In France, it has just dropped to 0.6. For the record, at the start of 2020, it was more than 3.
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Experience calls for caution
According to Professor Olivier Bouchaud, head of the infectious diseases department at the Avicenne hospital, in the Paris suburbs, if we have reason to be optimistic, we must nevertheless remain cautious: “ To claim that the Covid pandemic is now completely behind us and that we are living its last weeks or months is a bit presumptuous and very premature. It is clear that we should certainly not bend over vaccination and that at the next period of transmission, that is to say next autumn and winter, it will be necessary to reactivate a number of measures barriers. We are not at all immune to a new variant and a seasonal upsurge. »
A Europe divided into 3 zones
Among our European neighbours, if the trend is also towards the easing of restrictions, all countries are not housed in the same boat. France, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, but also Luxembourg, the United Kingdom and Switzerland are among the luckiest. All recorded significant drops in contamination.
On the other hand, Germany, Austria, Greece, but also Ireland are still struggling, despite their efforts, to bend their curves. And then there are those who can’t see the end of the tunnel and who are still struggling with rising infections and hospitalizations. This is the case of Iceland, Norway and the Netherlands.
But where the figures are the most worrying is in Eastern Europe. An area where the proportion of vaccinated people is still too low to emerge from the crisis. This is particularly the case in Russia where the contamination figures are panicking and where mortality is breaking absolute records.
Different health policies
This heterogeneity is also found in the political management of the crisis, underlines Professor Antoine Flahaut, director of the Institute of global health in Geneva. ” There are “living with” policies, which means that we only take strong measures to avoid saturation of intensive care units and hospitals. This is a policy followed by the French, for example, but also by the British, the Spaniards and the Italians. And then there are somewhat more proactive policies like Denmark. For example, there was only one recorded death, reported by the Danish health watch when the country was confined. This means that they were ready to take strong measures, even from a psychological point of view for the population, to try to be more efficient. And indeed, they were much more efficient than the Swedes, than the British or even than the French. They have recorded far fewer deaths “, he recalls.
An untenable “zero Covid” policy
Thinking of better protecting their population, several countries around the world have chosen a “zero Covid” policy. A policy that is increasingly difficult to maintain. As proof, the Australians, New Zealanders and Singaporeans have just given it up. Only the Chinese seem determined to maintain their line. Not for very long, according to Professor Antoine Flahaut: “ The Chinese clearly see that this is no longer tenable with Omicron, which is very, very highly transmissible. Even vaccinated people can become carriers of the Omicron virus and transmit it in the country. So, we can think that after the end of the Olympic Games, the Chinese will do like Japan, or like Korea, that is to say that they will have a low tolerance to the circulation of the virus. But not a zero tolerance that is no longer tenable. »
Since 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic has claimed nearly 6 million lives worldwide. A figure which, according to the World Health Organization, could be two to three times higher if the excess mortality indirectly linked to the disease was taken into account.
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