The Minister of Justice, Eric Dupond-Moretti, and that of Labor, Olivier Dussopt, risk leaving the government in the event of conviction by the courts. Added to their possible replacements are rumors of a reshuffle which would even concern the Prime Minister.
This is a possibility to consider: that of the necessary replacement of two ministers. The future of Minister of Justice Eric Dupond-Moretti and that of Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt are in the hands of justice, the members of the government being respectively judged for “illegal taking of interests” and “favoritism”. If Olivier Dussopt still has a few days ahead of him before being fixed, the date of the deliberation is not yet known, for Eric Dupont-Moretti the verdict from the Court of Justice of the Republic is expected this Wednesday, November 29 at 3 p.m. .
The government must therefore prepare for possible changes soon, because in the event of conviction, ministers will have to resign. In any case, this is the “rule” which applies, as Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne recalled on October 8 on BFMTV. This “clear rule” has already got the better of some ministers during “the previous five-year term”, however it had been simplified to apply only to convicted ministers and not to those indicted.
Dupont-Moretti and Dussopt replaced if convicted?
Why would the two men be an exception to the rule which forces convicted ministers to resign? In theory, there is no reason to justify their maintenance. Except perhaps an appeal by the Minister of Justice Eric Dupond-Moretti, in the event of conviction, which would have a suspensive effect on the sentence, but not on the decision rendered… The former lawyer, however, enjoys support assumed presidential position, according to the refrain that comes up in the mouths of several people close to the Head of State in the media. Emmanuel Macron, who placed the tenor of the bar at the head of the ministry of Place Vendôme, also expressed his support for the minister behind closed doors of the Council of Ministers on Wednesday, November 22, one week before the verdict, according to franceinfo.
Would the loss of the Minister of Justice therefore be unthinkable for the Head of State who campaigned for the maintenance of his minister, despite the latter’s conflictual relations with a class of the judiciary? The Elysée has always refused to comment on the affair or the future of Eric-Dupont Moretti in the government and “ultimately, Macron will decide” on the departure or maintenance of his minister, whispered an advisor to franceinfo. Rumors spread by certain advisors still say that Emmanuel Macron would prospect through text messages and nightly phone calls to find a possible successor to the Minister of Justice. Phone calls which could also be made to look for a possible replacement for the Minister of Labor. Olivier Dussopt has been more discreet than his minister colleague, but he has been involved in all the big issues for more than a year: the pension reform adopted painfully, the unemployment insurance reform and more recently the immigration bill that he had to defend alongside Gérald Darmanin. He finally withdrew after the announcement of his trial which risks costing him his place in government.
The Prime Minister threatened by a reshuffle?
More than the replacement of the two ministers, it is a broader reshuffle which is mentioned by certain rumors. Some members of the Macronie go so far as to ask the question of the maintenance of Elisabeth Borne at Matignon according to the indiscretions of the Figaro. The criticisms made against the Prime Minister during the previous reshuffle are still relevant despite the polytechnician’s efforts to be a more political head of government, but above all it is the need to give “new life” to the five-year term with ” new reforms” which makes some say that a reshuffle would be useful. “We need new ideas, but above all another governance,” a senior government advisor told the newspaper.
Elisabeth Borne, who intends to stay at Matignon and has silenced the rumors about her possible presence at the top of the list for the next elections in 2024, can count on the support of her team. Also on some ministers? One of them launched into the Figaro : “In the relative majority, the rumor of a reshuffle will never die out. It is always possible, never probable, and if some people raise the hypothesis, it is because they want to benefit from it.”
A particular agenda for a reshuffle
If during her mandate Elisabeth Borne may have suffered from certain weaknesses, she overcame more than ten 49.3 in just a year and a half, notably the last salvo used for the budget vote last September and October. And the hypothesis of a reshuffle fits difficultly with the political period, while the examination of the immigration law, a crucial text by Gérald Darmanin, must take place until the end of the year before a vote for which the government would like to do without 49.3, without definitively excluding it. Wouldn’t that be a better calculation than leaving the government in place at least until the end of the sequence? In the event of recourse to 49.3 and a motion of censure filed by LR, the government would risk being overthrown, even if the chances of this happening diminish with the refusal of the socialists to join a possible motion from the right.
Some rumor makers set the first half of 2024 as the deadline, but the year will also be busy with the European election campaign in the spring, the Olympics during the summer and the return of the budget vote next fall which will certainly require again on 49.3.