Europe has been like an experimental laboratory for the threats of climate change again this summer.
Among other things, exceptional floods killed people and destroyed property last summer. Many summers before that saw drought, storm and flood. However, now the records of the previous dry summer, 2018, are being broken.
In many places, even for a month, the heat has not only tormented people, but also caused havoc in forests, fields and waterways.
Several European countries are suffering from a water shortage and there is no relief in sight – the current drought could be the worst in 500 years, warns the research institute
A credit rating company that evaluates financial risks According to Standard & Poor’s four percent of the world’s gross domestic product may be lost due to extreme weather by 2050. Reinsurance company Swiss Re, on the other hand, estimated last year that that the economic loss can be up to 18 percent if nothing is done about the situation.
This story tells how the drought affects Finns and the economy.
There may be an electricity crisis ahead
When less hydropower is obtained, the effects are felt throughout the European market. For example, the water reserves of power plants in Italy and Norway are exceptionally low. Electricity transmission connections from the Nordic countries to Central Europe have been increased, and therefore Europe is now interdependent in electricity.
Norway is preparing to limit the export of electricity, as the government prioritizes filling water tanks for the winter over electricity production.
In France, on the other hand, most of the nuclear power has had to be scaled down, for example, because there is not enough cooling water. The water of the Rhône and Garonne rivers is too warm to effectively cool nuclear reactors. In Switzerland, the production of the Beznau nuclear power plant has been halved because the Rhine water is not cool enough.
The drying rivers can therefore worsen the shortage of electricity in the coming months. At the same time, the price of emission rights is high, which is why additional energy produced with coal is expensive.
Market prices in Finland are also raised by the fact that especially Central Europe and the Baltic countries absorb electricity from neighboring countries due to natural gas availability problems.
Less supply in the grocery store
It is already known that the yields of, for example, rice or tomatoes will be record low in Southern Europe this year. Farms don’t get the irrigation they need.
In Italy, it is estimated that due to the crop losses in the Pojoe valley, the agricultural production of the entire country will be about a third lower this summer than in previous years. The crops get their irrigation water from the river.
It would seem that this information about the Finnish harvest is quite normal, MTK’s grain representative of the Finnish Federation of Agricultural Producers Max Schulman evaluate.
But on the shelves of Finnish grocery stores, Europe’s drought will be visible next winter.
– The prices of certain foodstuffs are rising, the price increase in Europe reaches here to us, says Schulman.
Due to the lack of fodder in the south, for example, meat production has had to be cut, the harvest of oil crops will be weak, and tomatoes or wheat are available less than in a normal year.
New grain varieties for Finnish fields
Even though Schulman’s canola field in Lohja is dry, it does not belong to the warning or alarm classifications of the European drought monitor EDO. When the soil in Lohja is dug deep enough, you will encounter moist clay.
However, there are several areas in southern Finland and the western border in the north where EDO considers the land to be alarmingly dry.
According to Schulman, it is estimated in European farming circles that this year’s drought may be reflected in the scarcity of crops in the coming years.
– Yes there [Keski- ja Etelä-Euroopassa] we are very worried about how we will survive next winter – at least with the feeding on livestock farms. On grain farms, on the other hand, they think about how much money they can use to buy both seeds and fertilizers for the next crop, Schulman lists.
In France, for example, the cattle have already been fed feed intended for next winter.
As a grain farmer, Schulman intends to ensure that he can “take control” of the new types of risks brought by climate change.
– It requires new varieties, new types of cultivation methods and probably sowing methods. But perhaps the most important thing is the new varieties, that is, I give hope to plant breeding, says Schulman.
This summer has once again shown that there is a need for Finnish feed elsewhere. In France, which experienced the driest July ever, the traditional ones were recently closed cheese stickswhen there was not enough fresh grass for the cows.
The Finns would like Schulman to start cultivating more grass than currently, which is in demand on livestock farms in southern Europe.
– The grasses have disappeared here in the clay areas of Southern Finland, but they could also get business, says Schulman.
When the climate changes, it would be worthwhile to switch to plants cultivated in autumn, i.e. winter wheat or winter barley, because they can withstand spring drought better than spring cereals.
Transportation will become more expensive
The waters of many of Europe’s most important river areas come from alpine glaciers. Researchers estimate that the mountain ice cover will be halved by 2050.
Evaporation of water physically impedes trade when important inland trade routes dry up. Inland water traffic is now severely restricted, for example In the Rhine River. Damages to industry and agriculture amount to billions of euros, Germany calculates.
The Rhine has been a pillar of the German, Dutch and Swiss economies throughout the ages. Now it is practically impassable. The Rhine is also the most important river for the entire European industry, through which barges transport coal, fuel oil, chemicals, raw materials as well as car parts and food.
When cargo ships cannot move on the Rhine, for example Uniper, a subsidiary of the Finnish state company Fortum, cannot get coal to its power plants in the Ruhr area. Uniper has announced that it will have to cut electricity production with coal due to the lack of raw material.
While the Rhine’s water is usually about two meters deep in July–August, now the water level is less than a meter along almost the entire length of the river. In places, depths of less than ten centimeters are already being measured.
The Danube, which runs through Central Europe to Ukraine, has also expired. The Danube is important for the grain trade, among other things. Along the Danube, emergency dredging works are underway in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia.
When the production of hydroelectric power plants decreases in drought, coal cargoes brought along the Danube are very important for the energy production of the coastal countries. So now the deliveries of coal are also stopped.
Land transport is congested
In some places, the price of transportation has even increased fivefold this summer. Similar price increases have not been seen before. Tourists who bought both goods and cruises on river ships have been transported to their destinations by road.
The problem is that at the same time, for example, the German railway network is congested. It is not possible to move river transport to roads either.
A chemical giant BASF calculates, that to replace its daily barge transport it would need 1,600 trucks. When there is also a shortage of truck drivers in Germany, roads are not a realistic alternative to waterways.
Inflation only accelerates
The drying up of water bodies would be a problem for commerce even in normal times, but it is an especially big problem now, when inflation is accelerating rapidly. The prices of electricity, transport and food just keep going up.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the looting of grain cargoes there have already caused a shortage of wheat, for example. When the drought came on top, the effects are so big that in the fall the price of bread and flour can plummet in our country too.
Finland also does not produce enough canola and canola for vegetable oils for its own needs. Edible oil prices are under upward pressure as a result of the drought.
More money than before is also spent on compensating for damages. The only crop insurer in Finland is Lähi-Tapiola, which does not yet want to assess the potential damage caused by this summer’s drought. Harvesting is still in progress, and the final balance will only be seen when the grain is in the silos.
– Us too [Suomessa] there are heavier momentary rains momentary, increased wind and dry periods, which cause a fire risk in the forest, director of Lähi-Tapiola’s farm and forest business Petri Pitkänen enumerates.
– The risks have increased and are increasing, and now the question is how well we can prepare for them, Pitkänen says.
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