The Sweden Democrats are swelling – the Moderates are shrinking.
The voter barometer for December is not a merry Christmas present for Ulf Kristersson.
– It’s starting to look bad, he’s starting to get down to serious numbers, says Demoskop’s head of opinion Johan Martinsson.
Christmas peace does not seem to descend on Rosenbad yet.
In Aftonbladet/Demoskop’s December survey, the Moderates back the most of all parties, reaching a level of 17.2 percent. The Sweden Democrats increase the most and get 22.9 percent.
The gap between the two parties is now a whopping 5.7 percentage points – a level not seen since 2019, according to Demoskop.
Opinion manager Johan Martinsson explains the situation by saying that SD has a “dream situation”. That is to say, great influence over the government’s policy but at the same time freed from full responsibility.
– It always costs money to govern, parties in government lose support on average, you see that all over Europe, he says.
Size matters
Martinsson adds that SD also benefits when issues in which the party has high confidence dominate the public debate. For example security, immigration and law enforcement.
Jimmie Åkesson’s attention-grabbing mosque outing has not contributed to the increase for SD. Something that Demoskop can see by analyzing the support for SD before and after the play, which is roughly in the middle of the measurement period.
According to Demoskop, SD takes voters mainly from M and KD.
The Sweden Democrats’ party secretary, Mattias Bäckström Johansson, is happy about the numbers and says that it is connected to the fact that the Tidö Agreement has started to deliver.
How does this affect the balance of power in the Tidö collaboration?
– We have been clear that size matters. We want an impact that is on par with our election results. We have also been clear that we want to be in government from 2026 if we get 50 percent together. Otherwise we will become an opposition party.
Frustration
Bäckström Johansson does not see the Moderates losing as a big problem. The most important goal is for the Tidö parties to increase and get over 50 percent in the next election.
The Moderates’ deputy party secretary Martin Borgs says that he is not concerned that things are going well for the partner parties.
– We do not see any demand for a left turn among the citizens, rather they want more of the issues we went to the election on. It is important to us.
Borgs says that the result of the measurement is in line with other measurements.
Why are you losing?
– We have seen the same pattern before. When it’s a bloody summer or attention-grabbing acts of violence, it creates a frustration that benefits the Sweden Democrats. I can feel that frustration myself, that we have to reverse the trend. But it takes time for the medicine to work.
FACTS About the survey
The survey was carried out by Demoskop on behalf of Aftonbladet within the framework of the Inizio panel, which reflects the Swedish people. The target group is the general public aged 18 and over.
The survey includes 2,495 interviews during the period 18 November to 4 December
2023, and is conducted as a web survey.
The question that was asked was: “Which party would you vote for if there were parliamentary elections today?” The question about party sympathy is supplemented with an open question where the respondent describes in their own words how they reason about the party choice. The selection is pre-stratified and weighted by age, gender, region and party in the previous election.
For a party to be reported under its own name, the party must get at least 1.5 percent in three consecutive measurements or get at least 3.5 percent in a single measurement. For parties that are represented in the Riksdag, the party’s support is reported regardless of size in the measurement.
Demoskop does not report margins of error for its monthly voter barometer. In order to understand changes in public opinion, the results are compared with previous measurements. Keep in mind that random sampling is always associated with uncertainty. Read more about how we think here.
The voter barometer is published in Aftonbladet. Questions about the survey are answered by Johan
Martinsson ([email protected]) or Karin Nelsson
([email protected])
Read moreJoin our opinion panel
Do you want to take part and answer Demoskop’s surveys where we find out what the Swedish people think about, for example, social issues and politics? Results are presented, among other things, in Aftonbladet. Answering is voluntary, you are anonymous and can opt out whenever you want. Click on the link to sign up.