Two weeks after snatching a draw at home against Newcastle, Paris Saint-Germain are masters of their destiny to qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League but are not immune to losing everything.
Paris Saint-Germain is at the dawn of all possibilities in a position that is both enviable because ultimately with its destiny between its feet, but also quite uncomfortable with the risk of seeing everything slip away from it and drag it into a situation that would work without calling everything into question.
The most favorable scenario
Second in Group F, the French champion travels to the Dortmund cauldron to face a Borussia already qualified for the round of 16 and who have no other pressure than to maintain their first place and ensure to face a second in the group and especially to receive on the return, which always constitutes an advantage, even with the disappearance of the valorization of the away goal.
A context which could serve Parisian purposes since the French club cannot afford the luxury of calculation. Indeed, with two points ahead of Newcastle and the AC Milan, PSG knows that a victory would avoid unnecessary fears. By winning, the Parisians would secure their qualification for the knockout phase and even finish first on specific goal difference. Unsurprisingly, they will rely on the effectiveness of Mbappé, who knows how to score in the Ruhr having scored a double there in 2017 when he was still playing for Monaco during a quarter-final return (3-2). The offensive animation will be carefully scrutinized depending on who is lined up with the native of Bondy. Very lively and decisive against Nantes, Barcola could be tested by Luis Enrique to bring speed and destabilize a German defense which does not offer all the guarantees in terms of solidity, especially on its flank with the heavy Süle.
Two other scenarios to avoid
If a victory would remove doubts, any other result would expose PSG to premature elimination, which has never happened in 12 years under the QSI era. The danger is very present especially as the Parisian club remains on three consecutive defeats away from home in Champions League and has never won in the Ruhr in two visits. Especially since he has the unfortunate habit of conceding goals away from the Parc des Princes, with a series of 15 trips in a row without managing to preserve his goal.
The return of Donnarumma, after his two games of suspension, raises questions to the extent that the Italian goalkeeper is capable of miracles on his line as well as blunders whether on the restart or in certain assessments of game situations. The Parisians will therefore need protect him as best as possible and in this sense, the return of Zaire-Emery should bring volume to the Parisian environment. The young international, absent since his injury in the selection against Gibraltar, is expected to start and will have the opportunity to further prove his maturity and his character.
However, PSG is not safe from anything. If he concedes a draw, he will be under threat from Newcastle. In this scenario, a victory at home would allow the Magpies to return to equality with PSG and steal their second place as well as qualification for the round of 16 of the C1, thanks to a particularly favorable goal difference. If AC Milan were to win while Paris drew in the Ruhr, the Parisians would then remain second.
If ever Paris were to lose in Dortmund, a victory for the English or the Italians would bury Parisian hopes and ambitions, condemning the French champions to go through the Europa League play-offs.
Heavy losses?
According to information from L’Equipe, even in the event of elimination from the C1, the Parisian staff has not planned to part ways with Luis Enrique and also fully trusts him to force his luck, through his experience and charisma.
However, leaving the road would not be without financial consequences and would create a shortfall of around ten or even twenty million euros. Indeed, PSG had received between 100 and 110 million euros over the last two seasons. This amount would be around 85-90 million euros if it went wrong. A hole in the treasury that he would be able to partly fill by going far in Europa League.
Considerations from which PSG is still far away, which knows what it must do in a match that looks like a round of 16 match.
The match of 6th and last day of the group stage of the Champions League, in Group F, between Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain will take place from 9 p.m., near Signal Iduna Park, in Dortmund.
The match of 6th and last day of the group stage of the Champions League, in Group F, between Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain will be broadcast live and exclusively on Canal++.
The meeting between Borussia Dortmund of Edin Terzic and Paris Saint-Germain of Luis Enrique will be accessible in streaming on the CanalPlay platform.
Betclic: Borussia Dortmund: 3.80 / Draw: 3.95 / Paris Saint-Germain: 1.84
Parions Sport: Borussia Dortmund: 3.70 / Draw: 4.00 / Paris Saint-Germain: 1.85
Winamax: Borussia Dortmund: 3.80 / Draw: 4.00 / Paris Saint-Germain: 1.85
Borussia Dortmund: Köbel (cap.) – Süle, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaïni – Sabitzer, Ozcan – Brandt, Reus (cap.), Bynoe-Gittens – Fülkrug.
Paris Saint-Germain: Donnarumma – Hakimi, Skriniar, Marquinhos (cap.), Hernandez – Ugarte, Zaire-Emery, Vitinha – Lee Kan-In or Kolo Muani, Mbappé, Barcola.