Ukraine has problems getting international support.
Then Russia can see its chance for a spring offensive.
– I don’t think they will succeed, but the risk is there, says Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy, in Nyhetsmorgon.
A new US aid package of SEK 625 million to Ukraine is on hold in the country’s Congress, and earlier this week Defense Minister Lloyd Austin expressed his concern about Ukraine’s future.
Today, Thursday, an EU summit will be held with all heads of state and government where Europe’s continued support for Ukraine will be discussed.
According to lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi, continued support for Ukraine is crucial for the country to continue to be able to defend itself and eventually free more areas from Russia.
Northern flank possible target
The American think tank ISW claims in a report that Russia is planning an offensive in the summer.
– As the situation is now, that Ukraine is having problems getting international support, the Russians possibly see a chance, says Paasikivi.
– Both parties are on a downward slope, so the question is who gets the worst of it first. This year, the Russians, who now have the initiative, could possibly launch offensives before the summer if Ukraine fails with a number of other things, such as mobilization, not receiving support and the F16 plan being delayed.
He says Ukraine’s northern border with Russia could be a possible target for a new offensive.
– That could be a possible direction, but then you would have to regroup and then you would see it on satellite images. But it is not impossible and Ukraine is worried about it.
– There is talk of a possible mobilization, and if such a mobilization is carried out in Russia, they will be able to get a couple of 100,000 more men before the summer to press on before Ukraine has got its personnel supply in order. I don’t think they will succeed, but the risk is there.
Believe in continued positional war
The Czech Republic has raised money to buy up around 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine – something that would make a big difference even if a new Ukrainian counter-offensive will not be the case for a while.
– Now Ukraine must partly get a fairly large supplement to avoid falling behind, partly you must double the stocking to be able to build up storage, says Joakim Paasikivi.
– It will probably be a continued war of positions, with a lot of artillery, many drones and many dead, he concludes.
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