He was only senator, but his intervention had not gone unnoticed. “I do not think that Vladimir Putin is an existential threat to Europe,” said JD Vance, in February 2024, during the 60th Conference on Munich Security. Today, this same JD Vance returns with a fanfare in this great diplomatic-military rating, which takes place from February 14 to 16, but this time as vice-president of the United States. Suffice to say that Europeans welcome him with circumspection – and first of all the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, with whom he should speak this Thursday, February 13.
The discussions between the two men promise to be difficult, even though negotiations for a cease-fire is accelerating. Wednesday, February 12, the American and Russian presidents spoke for a long time on the war in Ukraine. In the report he made it on his Truth social network, Donald Trump says he wants the two leaders to work in a “very close” way on the resolution of the conflict, which could arise “in the not too far future”. But the comments of the Secretary of Defense, this same day, in Brussels, let fear the worst.
NATO, “unrealistic” objective
In a brief speech, Pete Hegseth has already announced the color of American positions. He thus judges “unrealistic” a return of Ukraine to its borders of 2014, a membership of kyiv to NATO or the presence of American troops in Ukraine. This last point is particularly aimed at Europeans. Already, before his departure, Pete Hegseth had warned that he would encourage Washington allies to “increase their defense expenses” and increase the “European leadership in the security assistance of Ukraine”.
The former Fox News columnist was further on Wednesday before the 31 NATO Defense Ministers: European countries will have to ensure in the future the “overwhelming” starts from civil and military aid to Ukraine . Worse, he said that peacekeeping troops, which could be deployed “at some point” should be in the context of a mission that is not NATO and not covered by the article 5 “of the alliance, which provides for the assistance of other NATO members, in the event of an attack on one of them. In other words, if these troops of peace are attacked by Russian forces or By mercenaries controlled by Moscow, they will not obtain American assistance a priori …
Trump’s mistake
Suffice to say that Trump’s first diplomatic steps in this crucial negotiation for Europe are extremely disturbing. By stating, immediately, their red lines, having obtained in exchange the slightest concession of the Russians – a shame for Trump, “the king of the deal” -, the Americans deprived themselves of a precious negotiation lever. Worse, the bilateral discussion between Putin and Trump marginalizes the twenty-seven in negotiations that concern them in the first place.
Wednesday, Volodymyr Zelensky also spoke with Donald Trump, but much more briefly than his enemy Vladimir Putin … This same Putin who, at this Munich platform, in February 2007, criticized American hegemony, could well – with a Trump which treats its allies as a congruent portion – to take advantage of it today. February 2007, it was before the Russian-Georgian war, the invasion of Ukraine and the hybrid war of Moscow against the West. But if the American vice-president JD Vance is convinced that the chief of the Kremlin is not “existential threat” …