How unexpected was Trump’s big win?
Eight years ago, Donald Trump left the state that kicks off the US election year as a loser. This time the outcome was completely different as Iowa voters ensured that he took the first step into the presidential race this fall with confidence.
Few are surprised by Trump’s overwhelming victory, most polls have pointed to a substantial lead. The question that hung in the air was whether he would manage to secure more than half of the votes, which he did.
The result is not only seen as a confirmation that Trump really is the big favorite. It is also a clear sign of how strong a hold he has on the Republican Party and its voters. The charges against him and the several lawsuits that Trump has increasingly used to his advantage have not made more voters hesitate and consider other options. Rather the opposite.
After Iowa, what can we expect then?
The campaigns have barely had time to pack up in Iowa before the next intense campaign spurt begins in the state of New Hampshire. If the first round didn’t turn out to be a nail-biter, it looks to be something more difficult in New Hampshire.
According to the latest polls, Trump does not have as strong an advantage in the state and is therefore expected to shift into an extra gear with a series of campaign stops in the coming week.
Here, the former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has strengthened her chances recently and is getting closer and closer to Trump. It is also a state whose Republican voters are described as fitting Haley’s profile and policies better than in Iowa.
Unlike Iowa, which looks to be a fight between Trump and Haley, Ron DeSantis has not put as much effort and resources into New Hampshire. DeSantis has also said he’s going straight to Haley’s home state of South Carolina, instead of doing what tradition says – going straight to New Hampshire as soon as Iowa is done.
How quickly can it become clear if Donald Trump becomes the Republican candidate?
Trump’s supporters did celebrate the victory at an arena in downtown Des Moines, where Trump also gave his victory speech. But the real victory celebration may be delayed for Trump’s supporters, as the number of delegates he has now secured is still far from what is required.
The Trump campaign has stated that it believes it knows when it might be over. The calculations are subject to change, as they are based on Trump winning in several of the early states, such as New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
In March, two extensive election rounds are held in a number of states. Partly “Super Tuesday” March 5 – when the largest number of states hold primary elections or nomination meetings – and what is sometimes called “Super Tuesday II”, March 19. At the latter, Trump’s advisers calculate that the former president should have collected the 1,215 delegates he needs to be unthreatened before the party’s convention in Milwaukee in July. However, the primary election season formally continues until June 4, when the final states choose their winners.