The latest polls show Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck. On the program side, the American billionaire emphasizes immigration control, oil and cryptocurrencies.
If the Republican Donald Trump intends to run for a second term in the White House, the task should be difficult in the face of the competition imposed by Kamala Harris. In the latest polls, the two candidates are neck and neck. According to 270towinat the national level, the real estate magnate received 47.5% of the vote, while the Democrat received 48.38% of the vote. The two candidates are neck and neck, and the election should be decided, as is often the case, based on the results in the “Swing States”. These undecided states, for which the political color can vary from one election to another. While Donald Trump had distanced Kamala Harris after the assassination attempt on her on July 13, using the image of the martyr, it would seem that the situation is turning around. To try to strengthen his base, and convince an uncertain electorate, Donald Trump can rely on a program that is both cash, but some points of which remain ambiguous, particularly concerning abortion and the role of the United States in Ukraine and Gaza. On immigration, there is no doubt, Donald Trump remains faithful to his line: he intends to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants.
What program for Donald Trump?
Economy: lower taxes and development of cryptocurrencies
On September 5, in New York, Donald Trump said he wanted to end “communism”. “Send comrade Harris home to California”. A foretaste of his program, to say the least cash, without concession. On the economic side, the real estate magnate is considering customs duties of “more than 10%” on all imports, to finance a “large tax cut for the middle class, the upper class, the lower class, the business class”, he explains. At the same time, he intends to make the United States, “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies”. Elon Musk would then be entrusted with a complete audit of the American administration. “Elon, because he is not very busy, has agreed to lead this commission to completely eliminate fraud and unnecessary spending in six months (…) This will save trillions of dollars”. In addition, relations with China could slightly harden. Donald Trump wants to revoke the “most favored nation” clause granted to China.
Impact on France and the European Union
Since the 1974 US Trade Act, the US president has been able to impose quotas and customs tariffs up to 15% higher for 150 days on countries that have significant surpluses in their balance of payments with the United States. He could therefore go further than the 10% announced so far. Enough to generate a real economic and trade war between the US and the EU. However, this scenario still seems unlikely, particularly because the EU remains the US’s leading trading partner. This puts the EU in a relatively strong position to discuss with Donald Trump and avoid overly drastic measures from the billionaire. Since the European Union enjoys a very high trade surplus with the United States, it should be able to accept some compromises, even if it means losing a little money, while maintaining at least courteous trade relations with the United States. Donald Trump could instead ask European countries, as has already been suggested in some of his campaign speeches, for a greater contribution to NATO.
Environment: end of regulations and oil galore
Concerning the environment, the former President of the United States could be tempted to lift all possible regulations if he were to gain access to the White House. “For each new regulation, we will eliminate at least 10 old laws, and frankly we will have no trouble doing it”, he assured at the beginning of September. “I will quickly put an end to the great green scam” he has already promised in the event of a second term. “We will drill (for oil) like crazy” he announced to his supporters, in order to “very quickly lower energy prices”. He notably promises to lower energy costs “by half” for Americans.
Immigration: “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants
On the subject of immigration, Donald Trump’s program has the merit of being clear, he wants to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants as soon as he is elected if he were to join the White House. The American billionaire also plans to “use the army” to achieve his ends in order to expel migrants, then to open new detention camps. The automatic right of the soil will also be canceled in the event of Donald Trump’s election, “for children born to irregular migrants”. The predecessor of Joe Biden recently accused migrants of “poisoning the country’s blood.”
Abortion: Trump cultivates ambiguity
During the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a heated exchange took place on the issue of abortion. Kamala Harris notably criticized the former President of the United States for having appointed three conservative judges to the Supreme Court, in order to end the federal guarantee of voluntary termination of pregnancy in 2022. “I warned that we were going to hear a tissue of lies,” she said. A response to Donald Trump’s assertion that babies would be executed after birth in the United States. “Nowhere in America is a woman going to go to the end of her pregnancy to ask for an abortion. It never happens. It’s insulting to the women of America,” she continued. Donald Trump believes he has “done a huge service” to the country by returning the decision on the right to abortion to the states themselves.
On the other hand, Donald Trump maintains the vagueness regarding the future of abortions in the country. He does not position himself on the line of the American religious right, according to which it would be necessary to promise an outright ban on abortion throughout the country by means of a federal law. “You have to follow your soul and conscience on this issue, but do not forget that you also have to win elections,” he declared.
Discreet on Gaza, Trump would resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”
If elected, Donald Trump would resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.” At least, that’s what the man himself claims. The problem is that the former US president has never really explained how he could even calm the conflicts in Ukraine. “I have a very specific plan to stop Ukraine and Russia. And I have a certain idea—maybe not a plan, but an idea—for China,” he said in an interview. As with abortion, Donald Trump remains vague. On the Gaza conflict, he was a staunch defender of Israel during the Hamas attacks in October 2023. Since then, he has not really wanted to get involved on the subject, saying he is not “exactly sure how to love the way” Israel is conducting its offensive in Gaza. Should we understand that the unconditional aid of the USA towards Israel would be called into question in the event of Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House? This is an option.
Tight results in swing states
The two candidates for the American presidential election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, are neck and neck in the race for the White House. The latest polls show the Republican with 47.5% of the vote, compared to 48.38% for the Democrat. But these national figures are less telling than the trends in each state. The American presidential election is an indirect vote: American voters vote and elect electors who are more or less numerous depending on the population rate of each state (the more inhabitants there are, the more electors there are) and the latter vote for a presidential candidate. When a state is won by the Republicans or the Democrats, all its seats are allocated to a single candidate, and it is this number of seats that counts to be elected. You have to win at least 270.
While some states historically and systematically vote for the same camp, others called “Swing states” vary according to the elections and often determine the outcome of the vote: these are Texas (38 electors), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (6). These are the states that have a lot of electors that must be won as a priority. And for now, according to 270towin’s compilationon September 9, 2024, Kamala Harris comes out on top in Michigan, while Pennsylvania and Georgia show a perfect tie between the two candidates. Donald Trump remains ahead in Texas (50% against 45%), Florida (49% against 44%) and North Carolina (48% against 47%).
Confusing remarks that could have harmed Donald Trump this summer
In an interview with the conservative Fox News channel, Donald Trump did not hesitate to question Kamala Harris’s skills, indicating that her foreign counterparts would “walk all over her” if she came to power. On Wednesday, July 31, he accused her of having “become black” for electoral reasons, during an exchange with African-American journalists in Chicago. “She was Indian through and through and all of a sudden, she changed and she became a black person,” he declared. Words that were “divisive and disrespectful,” Kamala Harris insisted on responding.
As a reminder, born to a Jamaican father and an Indian mother, Kamala Harris is the first black woman and woman of South Asian origin to aim for the presidency of the United States of America. She defines herself as a “black woman”. A few days earlier, on July 26, Donald Trump had already found himself under fire from critics. In front of conservative Christians, he had declared that “in four years, you won’t have to vote anymore. We will have solved the problem so well that you won’t have to vote anymore”.