The American consumer confidence index fell in February at its lowest level for eight months. It is a particularly scrutinized indicator across the Atlantic, where economic activity largely depends on household morale. This underperformance is linked to inflation anticipations at the highest year and a half. The Americans, who voted for a protectionist policy, begin to understand that it will result in higher prices, that is to say by less purchasing power.
Another standard in half mast in the United States: stock market indices. During his first term, Trump had not been stingy with tweets celebrating the records of the Dow Jones or the S&P 500. He is more discreet since returning to the White House. And for good reason: all American clues, including NASDAQ, have been down since the start of the year, more than European indices.
Wall Street analysts are worried
Trump’s policy certainly does not fully explain these curves that point down. The financial markets approached 2025 at very high levels of valuation. Tech values, in particular, are exchanged at prohibitive prices. However, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla weigh more than 30 % of the total capitalization of the S&P 500: when they are mistreated, the whole American stock market vacillates. However, Wall Street analysts are obviously concerned about Trump’s protectionism. They know that to impose customs duties of 10, 15 or even 25 % on China, Canada or the European Union is likely to significantly increase the cost of value chains and reduce the profits of American companies.
The Tesla case is particularly spectacular, and it is probably no coincidence. The market value of the company melted by a third in three months, after having rebounded following the election of Trump in November. Admittedly, Chinese competition and the questioning of “all electric” in Europe explain part of this poor performance. But the brand identified with Elon Musk now acts as a piping for a number of consumers. Tesla sales fell in Germany following Musk’s support at AFD.
In Canada, a country particularly targeted by Trump’s imperialist ambitions, some Tesla owners have stuck on their bumper a sticker proclaiming their brand’s love but not its founder. In Canada Still, the Cirium design firm has published for the newspaper The press A study showing a start of disaffection of tourism to the United States, for the benefit of Mexico and the Caribbean. The first world economy is therefore starting to suffer from a slight boycott form which, associated with protectionism, could partially counterbalance the positive effects of tax cuts announced by Trump.
Trump defeats the international order post-1945
There is another, more fundamental argument that suggests that a scuttle of the American economy by the Trump team is at work. Its principle was exposed by the journalist of CNN Fareed Zakaria in a conversation with Ezra Klein for the New York Times. Zakaria explains that Trump defeats the international post-1945 international order which has just allowed American industrial and geopolitical power to prosper. This order has established an incomplete peace, but nevertheless unprecedented in history, which has given businesses of different nations to cooperate, and to the economies to develop.
It was based on free trade without which no champion of American tech, from Amazon to Tesla via Apple, could not have growed. It has enabled the circulation of immense capital flows which made the dollar the international reserve currency, a privilege which allows the United States to display levels of deficits and debt higher than other countries. Finally, the Marshall Plan and, more generally, development aid have given Americans a global influence in no other, influence that successive administrations have perfectly transformed into an economic advantage.
Finally, Maga – Make America Great Again – appears for the time being a hollow slogan that is trying to hide the colossal economic shrinkage which the United States could be victims if Trump gives free rein to his madness. The main unknown remains the European reaction. Is it ready to grab the torch to become, in these 2020-2030s, what the United States was for the world after the Second World War? We are ready to bet it.
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