During his career, he assisted six different US secretaries of state Aaron David Miller warns Finland.
– If I were a European ally counting on US support, I would be worried.
Miller, 74, is a stalwart of US foreign policy. He worked at the US State Department for four different decades and is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP).
In an interview with , Miller says that the United States has drifted into a situation where it is unpredictable both as an ally and as an enemy.
– I say this as a person who promoted the interests of the United States for 25 years. As a person who understands that the United States has made mistakes and transgressions, but who deeply believes that the United States can also be a good force in the world.
– But if I were an ally of the United States, I would be quite worried about what the change to a Republican administration would mean, Miller repeats.
By Republican administration, Miller refers to the previous and possibly the next president of the country to Donald Trump.
asked Miller and other experts what Trump’s return would mean for Europe.
Trump can rise to power even from prison
Trump is the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. Over the past year, Trump’s support among Republicans has risen as the party’s voters have rallied to support Trump, who is struggling with lawsuits.
In opinion polls More than half of the party’s supporters support Trump as the Republican candidate.
Multiple indictments or a possible criminal conviction will not end Trump’s election campaign. There is no provision in the US Constitution that prevents an accused or convicted person from running for president. Trump also said himself last week, that even if convicted, he would stay in the race until the end.
In the polls, the president Joe Biden and Trump’s endorsements are close togetherso Trump has at least a reasonable chance of returning to the White House.
Trump’s return would be Putin’s luck
Sean Monaghana visiting researcher from the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank (CSIS) says that the discussion about the foreign policy of Trump’s possible second term is becoming relevant.
According to Monaghan, Europe did not know how to prepare for Trump’s first term. Now it would be important not to repeat the same mistake.
– This time, Europe has the opportunity to prepare for a shock result. Or maybe not even to such a surprising result anymore.
It’s along the same lines Anna Wieslanderdirector of the Northern European division of the Atlantic Council, a think tank.
– The possibility of Trump’s return creates a clear sense of nervousness in Europe.
It brings nervousness especially to Ukraine. Trump has repeated several times that he wants to end the war in Ukraine “in one day” and thus prevent “the third world war”.
Wieslander says that the Russian president Vladimir Putin hardly taking Trump’s campaign speeches seriously. Monaghan also talks about the peace negotiations as mediated by Trump.
– Almost a year and a half until the elections. That’s a really long time on the battlefield, says Monaghan.
Instead, both Putin and the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi are mainly interested in US arms shipments.
– Would Trump supply weapons to Ukraine again? If not, it would force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, Wieslander estimates.
Monaghan says Trump would have the support of Republican voters to cut aid to Ukraine.
Research institute of the Pew Research Center according to measurements, in the initial phase of the Russian invasion, less than 10 percent of Republican voters thought that the support given to Ukraine was too great.
Dissatisfaction with the support has, however, steadily increased. In the June survey, almost half of the Republicans thought that supporting Ukraine was too much.
Miller is clear that Trump would look for a “way out” of Ukraine by reducing aid. In addition to that, Trump could very well agree to a peace process that would be favorable to Russia, Miller estimates.
This is what Russia hopes, and the Kremlin has recently signaled more and more that it is an ally of Trump.
Russia in May imposed economic sanctions to many Americans who have nothing to do with US Russia policy. Instead, they are united by their attachment to Trump.
The New York State Supreme Court official involved in Trump’s lawsuits ended up on the blacklist Letitia James and a special researcher at the Ministry of Justice Jack Smith.
Russia also added the state secretary of the state of Georgia to its sanctions list by Brad Raffenspergerwho disobeyed when Trump pressed him to “find” votes so that Trump would have surged past Biden in the last election’s vote count.
Russia even put the police of the congress building under sanctions by Michael Byrdwho shot a rioter who supported Trump on the day of the takeover of the Congress building By Ashley Babbitt.
Criticism of NATO would come back
Served as Trump’s national security advisor John Bolton Has said that he believed Trump planned to withdraw the United States from the military alliance NATO during his second term.
In US law not clearly stated, can the president withdraw a country from NATO without congressional support. In practice, however, the president can do this, even if the decision is likely to be immediately challenged in court.
According to Miller, the president’s decision to withdraw from NATO would take the United States into completely uncharted territory. Miller does not consider leaving NATO likely, but is worried about how criticism of NATO has become mainstream.
of the Pew Research Center in surveys in recent years, only about half of Republican voters have had a positive attitude towards NATO.
– I would never have believed this. These opinions used to be heard only from both extremes, either from the left or from the right.
Monaghan predicts that Trump would continue his familiar criticism of NATO from the first term, according to which the United States covers too much of the military alliance’s expenses.
– The European allies must prepare for an argument about burden sharing and they must be able to show that they are investing more than before.
Also according to Wieslander, Trump would start threatening to leave NATO again, so that he could later say he got European countries to increase their defense budgets.
However, Wieslander continues to be concerned about a scenario in which Trump would demand that NATO allies increasingly join the US bandwagon against China.
– This would be a problem for Europe.
Trump’s speeches have become radicalized
Trump’s election campaign, which is in full swing, is more radical and vindictive in its message than his previous campaigns.
At the core of Trump’s campaign rhetoric are unfounded conspiracy theories, according to which the previous elections were fraudulent and now the Democrats have also tricked the Ministry of Justice and the federal police into a chase against the Republicans.
Trump has succeeded in radicalizing much of the country’s right wing into believing that the institutions of the state are against the common people. The popular slogan of the campaign has become the statement:
– They are after you. I’m just standing in their way.
Trump is, among other things spoke that it is the “revenge” of its supporters that destroys the “shadow government” that has hijacked the legal system. He is also written bythat sections of the US Constitution should be abolished.
According to Miller, the political debate thus inflamed can lead to almost anything in the near future, which US allies should take note of.
With the election approaching, the United States may be in a situation where Trump is the Republican candidate and a convicted felon at the same time. The United States may even end up in a situation where Trump, sentenced to prison, wins the election and pity himself from imprisonment.
News site Axios reported last year based on numerous interviews, that Trump’s camp has been working for a long time to surround Trump with loyal aides in his second term.
Wieslander says that in preparing for a change of power in the White House, the rule is to keep in touch with those who can rise to the president’s inner circle. However, he continues that it is difficult to even guess who Trump’s inner circle would consist of.
Miller thinks so.
– I have no advice on how to prepare. I don’t think there is a way to prepare.
According to information from Axios, Trump is also planning to fire several thousand officials from the US ministries and intelligence services by presidential decree in order to make room in state institutions for employees who promote Trump’s line.
– The biggest threat to this country is not China or Russia or Iran, but ourselves, Miller describes the course of development.
Europe cannot rely on the United States
The experts’ common message to Europe is that the continent’s defense must not depend on the United States.
– Don’t put all your eggs in one basket, says Wieslander.
Monaghan reminds that supporting Ukraine has shown how a large part of the United States still sees European security as creating security for the United States as well. Europe still has to accept the US direction.
– Europe must understand that the United States is focusing more on China, even though there is a war going on in Europe.
Finally, Miller says that he needs quick efforts from Europe to secure the countries under the threat of Russia. Only two NATO countries are outside of Europe, Miller reminds, referring to the United States and Canada.
According to Miller, it was far too small for the situation in Europe to be completely different now.
– Imagine what would have happened if the United States had not opposed Russia’s attack in Ukraine. Would Europe have been able to shoulder the responsibility?
Is Europe’s defense dependent on the United States? You can discuss the topic until 11:00 p.m. on June 19.
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