The new polls, conducted on behalf of the New York Times by Siena College, show that Donald Trump now leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania by between 10 and 4 percentage points over Joe Biden.
Together with Wisconsin, the states are seen as so-called “swing states”, or wave master states, and the election results in these have several times decided the battle for the presidency.
In the 2020 presidential election, Biden won in all of the swing states, but if it were an election today, the result would be different.
Worry about age
One explanation for Trump’s dominance is a dissatisfaction with how Biden manages the US economy, according to responses to the opinion poll. Many are also concerned about the president’s advanced age. Joe Biden turns 81 in November, and both his mental and physical health have been questioned by his opponents.
Three-quarters of voters say they are worried about Biden’s health, according to one polling as NBC recently commissioned. The corresponding figure for 77-year-old Trump is 47 percent.
At the same time, two-thirds, 62 percent, have concerns about the legal processes the Republican is facing.
The Republicans have not yet formally named Donald Trump as the party’s nominee.
Background: This is how a presidential candidate is appointed
The presidential candidates in the United States are formally chosen at the Democratic and Republican conventions, but who they will be is usually clear much earlier in the primary election process.
In 2024, the Republicans will hold their convention on July 15-18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Democrats meet August 19-22 in Chicago, Illinois.
A few thousand delegates are sent to the convention, who are appointed at the primaries and nomination meetings held in each state earlier in the election year. The number of delegates varies with the population of the states.
Nomination meetings are also called nomination elections or trial elections (in English caucus). They are usually organized by the parties and involve members gathering locally and debating the various presidential aspirants and carrying out a form of voting. Primary elections are arranged by the states and are more like ordinary local elections, although usually with lower turnout.
When it is clear who will be the presidential candidate, he usually appoints his vice-presidential candidate.