According to news agencies, Russian President Vladimir Putin has alerted nuclear forces. However, Finnish researchers do not believe that Russia would make a nuclear strike despite the intimidation.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin has put nuclear weapons on alert, news agencies say.
On Sunday, Putin referred to “aggressive statements” by NATO leaders and economic sanctions on Russia.
Minister of Defense of Finland Antti Kaikkonen (center) briefly commented today on Putin’s flogging of nuclear weapons forces.
– Doesn’t sound good, Kaikkonen told .
Foreign minister Pekka Haavisto (Greens) commented on ‘s Ykkösaam on Saturday that Russia may even be ready to use nuclear weapons.
Specialist Researcher at the National Defense University Pentti Forsström sees Putin’s speeches as an additional pressure not only on Ukraine but also on the rest of the world. Forsström believes that Russia has plans to use nuclear weapons, but the threshold for nuclear disarmament is “extremely high.”
– Personally, I don’t think so. The Russians have strongly condemned the United States for using nuclear weapons against Japan in World War II, even though the country had already been knocked to its knees. Russia has pointed out that this is an inhumane way of wars, Forsström explains.
He further points out that if an attack were to take place, other nuclear powers would be forced to react in some way to the situation. Russia hardly wants that.
– It would be such a large-scale decision, the consequences of which would be extremely difficult to assess. How would the nuclear powers react and what would happen next?
Investigator: The decision to launch would be Putin’s
Pentti Forsström, a specialist researcher at the National Defense University, points out that we are still in a verbal situation with regard to nuclear weapons. He believes that before an attack on an opponent, Russia would likely launch a “warning strike” at a former nuclear test site in Novaya Zemlya, for example.
Forsström says that in addition to intercontinental, strategic nuclear weapons, Russia also has tactical nuclear weapons that are less powerful and were originally intended for use on the battlefield.
– They can be dropped off planes, for example. They have a substantially lower explosive power but are extremely destructive.
According to Forsström, the destructive effects of even lower-power nuclear weapons are considerable.
– We are talking about a wide-ranging impact. Naturally, the pollution effects of nuclear weapons are also long-lasting, as has been observed in nuclear accidents.
According to Forsström, it is President Vladimir Putin who is at the top of the decision-making chain for a possible nuclear shutdown in Russia.
The matter would probably be discussed first by the Security Council, which is made up of, among others, the intelligence services, the defense administration, the head of the general staff and the foreign minister.
– I believe that in the case of Russia, the president has the explicit decision-making power. If he decides, then the armed forces will implement.
According to the researcher, strategic weapons will be stored in Central Russia, for example in the permanent missile division in Siberia. The fleet’s nuclear weapons are in the bases of the Kola Peninsula and in the Pacific Fleet. Air Force nuclear weapons are located all over Russia, both in the west and in the east.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which monitors the number of nuclear weapons, Russia had 6,257 nuclear weapons last year, of which 1,570 were nuclear warheads.
Investigator: “Nuclear Weapons Order Could Be Blocked From the Inside”
Researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Jyri Lavikainen says it has already waited for Russia’s announcement to put nuclear weapons on alert. According to him, the primary goal is to improve Russia’s negotiating position in a situation where Ukraine’s war and the international reaction it has caused have not progressed as expected.
– The main use of nuclear weapons today in Russian politics is precisely intimidation. Simply raising readiness does not mean that they are being used, Lavikainen says.
According to Lavikainen, Russia’s possible goals for intimidation could be that Ukraine would bend to harder concessions in the negotiations and that the Western countries would reduce their support for Ukraine.
Lavikainen does not believe that Russia is actually resorting to nuclear weapons, simply because there are still many forms of traditional warfare in the country. Nuclear weapons would be a last resort, and the threshold for using them is really high.
– At the stage when the state uses nuclear weapons, it becomes a full stretcher. There is already uncertainty within the Russian elite as to whether war was a good idea. If the president starts to impose the use of nuclear weapons, there will be quite a lot of dividing lines, and it may be tried to prevent it from the inside, Lavikainen says.
According to the researcher, the alarm state is trying to cause fear and anxiety in people and make the gaps between the West. He has advice for policy makers and citizens:
– Stay calm.
Story updated at 5:45 p.m. Added comments by researcher Jyri Lavikainen.