NATO country Romania may have dropped parts of a Russian plane on Monday, the Romanian Defense Minister confirmed on Wednesday. Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg on the other hand, commented on the matter in a cautious tone on Thursday and reminded that no indications of intent have been found.
– Russia tests NATO by creating risky situations, and sees how NATO reacts, says the director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute Kristi Raik To .
According to Raik, Russia’s goal may be an effort to exert psychological influence by creating fear of war in NATO.
However, he believes that Russia does not really want to get into a war against NATO.
NATO is silent because it avoids possible escalation
According to Kristi Raik, NATO is deliberately trying to avoid taking steps that would increase the risk of escalation.
– Of course, this is a matter to be taken very seriously, Raik admits. However, it is also important not to give fear too much power.
Raik reminds that Romania has not itself made a request or hoped for consultation from NATO in this situation.
– In order to get a stronger reaction from NATO, the NATO country itself should request such help, says Raik.
According to Raik, NATO’s reaction is a demanding game and balancing act. NATO wants to carefully consider every step in order to avoid a possible risk of escalation. At the same time, NATO must keep in mind the realistic risks and NATO’s interest, which is to support Ukraine in a war of aggression.
– War is really a threat to NATO and it must have a credible defense capability that can be taken care of. NATO must have the ability to respond if something happens on the eastern border.
According to Raik, Russia’s wish might be that the support given to Ukraine from the West would weaken. As far as NATO is concerned, the situation should not lead to that either, says Raik.
“Russia does not want a war against NATO”
If it is found that Russia deliberately carried out a military attack on a NATO country, then the situation would be completely different, says Raik.
In this case, NATO’s Fifth Article would be triggered.
However, Raik believes that Russia does not want a war against NATO.
– We are not in that situation now. I would consider it likely that Russia will not make a deliberate attack against NATO. However, it plays with the creation of risks and psychological pressure and thereby tries to influence the willingness of Western countries to continue supporting Ukraine.
North Atlantic Treaty The fifth article binds the NATO countries to help a member state that has been attacked, if necessary, even armed.
Member states decide themselves how extensively they participate in operations. However, NATO’s operation is based on giving help when it is needed.
According to Kristi Raik, NATO now has to consider whether it needs to strengthen its air defense on the Ukrainian border.
According to him, NATO has defense plans for if NATO countries are attacked.
– There has been a lot of discussion about the fact that there can be unclear situations as to whether a NATO country is the target of, for example, a hybrid attack. To my understanding, there is no clear guidance on this. There can be many kinds of situations, but one basic thing is that the NATO country that is being attacked must ask for help. Otherwise, NATO will not take action, says Raik.
Threat of nuclear weapons “highly unlikely”
President Sauli Niinistön According to the report, the parts of the presumably Russian airplane that fell in Romania indicate that there is a “certain balance of terror” in Europe.
On Thursday, Niinistö also spoke about the threat of nuclear weapons and reminded that decision-makers must keep in mind the danger of escalation with regard to atomic weapons.
Kristi Raik does not believe that the risk of nuclear weapons has suddenly increased.
– The risk cannot be ruled out, but it is very unlikely that it would happen, says Raik.
– I don’t know if Niinistö has any information that I don’t have when you refer to this. That is also possible. But I’m not aware of that myself.
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